Synopsis: After weeks of shutdown silence, markets await September’s CPI report Friday. Inflation near 3.1% may sway rate-cut timing, stirring volatility in crypto and investor sentiment.
After weeks of silence caused by the government shutdown, investors and crypto traders are finally watching for the delayed September inflation report this Friday. The Consumer Price Index (CPI), expected at 3.1%, could break above 3% for the first time in 2025.
Personally, it feels a little tense this week. The data blackout left markets guessing, and this report now carries unusual weight. The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release it at 8:30 a.m. ET, nine days later than planned. President Trump’s administration ordered limited staff back to ensure the release, mainly because Social Security’s cost-of-living adjustments depend on it.
Economists expect headline CPI to rise 0.4% monthly and 3.1% annually, according to Trading Economics and FactSet. Sticky service costs and lingering tariffs seem to have kept prices firm, even though energy prices eased slightly.
A CPI Print Above 3%
Markets have been steady lately, but Friday’s CPI might change that. Higher inflation can unsettle investors, even if the Federal Reserve seems focused more on jobs than prices.
Analyst Ash Crypto said a number above 3.1% “will be bearish,” marking the highest CPI reading since June 2024. On the other hand, investor Ted Pillows believes a 3% or lower reading “will be good for the markets.” I tend to agree a figure under 3.1% could calm nerves and invite a short-term relief rally.
Still, economists don’t expect the Fed to abandon its rate-cut plans. Futures markets show 98.3% odds for a cut next week. Even a “hot” print above 3.1% might only delay December’s expected easing, not stop it altogether.
The Fed, which already lowered rates in September, has signaled more support is coming. Rising unemployment and slow hiring figure prominently in its outlook, making this CPI more of a checkpoint than a turning point.
Why You Should Watch The Outcome Closely
Crypto markets have held steady ahead of the inflation release. The total market capitalization stands near $3.85 trillion, up around 1.8% over 24 hours. Bitcoin briefly touched $111,000, before settling near $110,500 on Thursday.
For crypto traders, this CPI print could swing sentiment either way. Historically, soft inflation data has boosted Bitcoin and risk assets as lower interest rates increase liquidity. Some analysts even suggest BTC could test $120,000 if the number lands at or below expectations.
On the other hand, if inflation surprises on the upside, risk appetite may shrink quickly. Bitcoin could fall toward $100,000 as short-term traders brace for tighter liquidity. Personally, I see crypto’s reaction as less about inflation itself and more about how confident traders feel in the Fed’s easing timeline.
Why the Inflation Report Still Matters
This report matters beyond price data it represents the first clear look into the U.S. economy during the month-long shutdown. With employment and payroll data unavailable, the CPI is now the only major official indicator left before the Fed’s October 29–30 meeting.
Private trackers like Truflation suggest daily inflation has steadied near 3%, hinting that any surprise could be modest. But even a minor variance can jolt markets since everyone’s attention is now on this single metric.
Despite the drama, inflation near 3% is not disastrous. Rather, it signals stability. As a crypto watcher, I see this as an encouraging setup. Rate cuts appear locked in, liquidity is improving, and the broader mood leans positive.
If you’re trading around the data, expect volatility but remember: the underlying momentum in digital assets remains strong. As one analyst put it, “Patience favors bulls.” And this time, it just might.
Written By Fazal Ul Vahab C H