Synopsis: Coinbase’s USDC revenue could jump 7x to $10B as stablecoin payments boom post-GENIUS Act. Bloomberg forecasts growth from $1.35B in 2025, though yield bans threaten rewards.
A new Bloomberg Intelligence report says Coinbase’s stablecoin income may surge up to 700%. But politics in Washington could change everything.
Coinbase is sitting on a revenue stream that analysts say could grow dramatically. Bloomberg Intelligence published a report, forecasting that Coinbase’s USDC-related revenue could multiply between two and seven times. The key condition? Stablecoin adoption in everyday payments must keep accelerating. For a company that lost $667 million in Q4 2025, this could be a major turning point.
Stablecoin Revenue Is Already a Big Deal
In 2025, Coinbase earned approximately $1.35 billion from stablecoins. That number represents about 19% of the company’s total revenue for the year. To understand how fast things are moving, consider this: in 2024, that figure was $911 million. That is a jump of roughly 48% in just one year.
In the fourth quarter of 2025 alone, Coinbase pulled in $364 million from stablecoins. This income comes mainly from a revenue-sharing deal with Circle, the company that issues USDC. Coinbase earns a cut of the interest generated by USDC reserves. Unlike trading fees, which rise and fall with crypto markets, this income stream stays relatively stable. That makes it especially valuable.
On the other hand, stablecoins have gone mainstream. Total stablecoin transaction volume reached a record $33 trillion in 2025. USDC alone accounted for $18.3 trillion of that figure. Furthermore, USDC beat out Tether by transaction value, though Tether still leads in market capitalization.
The GENIUS Act Changed the Game
The biggest policy shift came in July 2025. President Donald Trump signed the GENIUS Act short for Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins. This law created a federal framework for payment stablecoins in the United States. Analysts at Bloomberg Intelligence, Paul Gulberg and Samuel Radowitz, credit this legislation as a key driver behind the bullish forecast. The law gave stablecoins a level of legal legitimacy they lacked before.
Coinbase has actively lobbied Washington to protect and grow this revenue source. The company clearly sees stablecoin income as central to its future business model. Therefore, any legislation touching this area gets the company’s full attention.
Washington Could Still Complicate Things
Not everything is straightforward, though. A political battle is now unfolding around stablecoin yield. The GENIUS Act explicitly bars stablecoin issuers from paying interest or yield directly to holders. Banks pushed hard for that rule because yield-bearing stablecoins could pull deposits away from the traditional banking system.
Now, banks want to go even further. During negotiations over the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act known as the CLARITY Act draft Senate language could extend that yield ban to third parties. That means exchanges like Coinbase could lose the ability to offer stablecoin rewards to customers. In January, Coinbase withdrew its support for the bill after objecting to those specific provisions.
However, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong offered a notable counterpoint to investors. He said that if Congress bans rewards, Coinbase would simply keep more of the Circle revenue share for itself. In other words, users would lose yield, but Coinbase’s margins could actually improve. As a result, the stablecoin business might become even more profitable for the exchange.
Senator Bernie Moreno has said he expects the CLARITY Act to pass through Congress as early as April.
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What This Means for Coinbase’s Future
The stakes here are significant. Coinbase reported a net loss of $667 million in Q4 2025, partly due to falling token prices and a 20% drop in quarterly revenue. Trading fees remain unpredictable. Stablecoin revenue, on the other hand, keeps climbing.
If the two-to-seven-times growth projection becomes reality, stablecoin income could eventually replace trading fees as Coinbase’s primary profit engine. That shift would represent a fundamentally different kind of crypto business one built on steady, interest-based income rather than market volatility.
As the CLARITY Act makes its way through the Senate, the exact rules around stablecoin yield will likely matter more to Coinbase’s bottom line than the price of Bitcoin itself. The next few months in Washington could shape the company’s financial future for years to come.
Written By Fazal Ul Vahab C H
