Synopsis: Bitcoin surged over 4% as U.S. Senate passed a funding deal, ending the 40-day shutdown. Traders now expect reopening by mid-November, boosting crypto and risk assets.
Bitcoin surged over 4% and Ethereum jumped 7% in response to news that the U.S. government shutdown, ongoing for 40 days, is nearing an end. Polymarket traders sharply shifted their bets, now expecting the shutdown to conclude before Veterans Day. This turnaround in sentiment has lifted both cryptocurrency and broader risk assets as Washington inches toward reopening.
Senate Deal
After weeks of deadlock, the U.S. Senate passed a bipartisan funding deal on Sunday night with a 60-40 vote. The agreement, reached by negotiators including Senate Majority Leader John Thune and several Democrats, would fund the government through January 30, 2026. It also reverses recent federal layoffs and secures December votes on important healthcare legislation, which helped win Democratic support. This procedural victory is a key step toward ending the longest federal shutdown in U.S. history, which started October 1 and has furloughed 1.4 million workers.
With this breakthrough, Polymarket prediction odds for the government reopening on November 12 surged significantly. Just one day before, traders saw a 63% chance the shutdown would last beyond November 16, extending into Thanksgiving. Now, the market reflects high confidence in a resolution by midweek, especially after President Trump’s comment that “we’re getting close to the shutdown ending.” The shutdown has disrupted services like air travel and food stamps, but relief looks imminent.
Cryptos Bounce Back Strongly
Bitcoin rose 4.2% to about $106,269, recovering from last week’s dip below $104,400. Ethereum outpaced Bitcoin with a 7.4% jump to $3,643, lifted by easing macroeconomic worries and returning liquidity. This rebound follows a sharp fall in October and early November, when Bitcoin lost over 17% amid uncertainty and stalled regulatory approvals.
Other cryptocurrencies such as XRP, Solana, and Filecoin also saw gains, reflecting a market rotation into high-beta assets. Total crypto market cap climbed around 3.2% to roughly $3.71 trillion, signaling broad market relief. Polymarket’s rapid shift in odds appeared closely tied to this risk-on rally, suggesting traders’ collective optimism about reopening has unlocked pent-up buying pressure in crypto.
Markets Brace for Ongoing Risks
Despite the hopeful signs, some risks remain. Market watchers note that the SEC may not approve certain crypto-related products, like a Cardano ETF, before year-end. Furthermore, flight cancellations and welfare pauses continue until federal funding resumes fully. Analysts caution that unexpected delays in Senate or House approvals could dampen the rally.
Still, experts see strong potential for crypto to surge as liquidity returns and stimulus-like effects kick in. Past shutdowns, like the 2018-2019 one, preceded a massive Bitcoin rally of over 260% in months after resolution. With Polymarket odds now at 93% for a stop to the shutdown this week, investors are closely watching legislative votes and upcoming economic stimuli announcements.
Market Overview
It’s striking how quickly market sentiment can flip once political gridlock lifts. Watching prediction markets like Polymarket react faster than polls is fascinating. Cryptos, often dismissed as volatile, are showing resilience by bouncing back when macro clarity returns. If the shutdown ends soon, this rebound may just be the start of a strong rally into early 2026.
Overall, the unfolding events in Washington highlight the deep interconnection between politics and market psychology. Traders should stay alert but optimistic as “normal” government function resumes markets tend to reward clarity and liquidity after long uncertainty.
Written By Fazal Ul Vahab C H