Synopsis: Despite the US-China trade truce, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index remains low, reflecting lingering caution as traders process ongoing macro uncertainty and past market shocks
The cryptocurrency market is still showing fear despite US President Donald Trump’s recent trade deal with China. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, a key measure of market mood, rose from 33 on Saturday to 37 on Sunday but remains deep in the “Fear” zone.
This modest improvement follows Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping’s announcement of a one-year trade truce, yet investors remain cautious. The White House called the deal a “massive victory” that protects US economic strength and workers, but the crypto market has not celebrated just yet.
Unshaken by Trade Deal Clarity
The new US-China trade agreement caught the crypto community’s attention because past tariff announcements have triggered big market swings. However, even with the deal’s clear terms China freezing new tariffs and committing to large purchases of US soybeans the crypto market barely moved.
Bitcoin’s price has hovered around $110,000 since the handshake photo, showing little reaction to the news. Trading volumes and leverage also remain flat, indicating traders are not rushing in. The market seems to remember last month’s tariff scare, when a sudden 100% tariff threat caused a sharp sell-off wiping out billions and sending the Fear & Greed Index to an extreme low of 18.
Why Fear Still Looms
Many traders are cautious after the October flash crash that shook confidence. That event removed $19 billion in long Bitcoin positions in a single day and sparked sharp price falls. Since then, the Fear & Greed Index has stayed below 40 for weeks.
Experts say the trade deal was mostly priced in by late October, so the “sell the news” effect left traders hesitant to jump back in. In addition, macro factors like rising US Treasury yields and a strong dollar keep crypto prices pressured. On-chain data shows ongoing profit-taking and little increase in long-term holding, signaling skepticism until more concrete gains appear.
Possible Turning Points Ahead
Historically, periods of sustained fear in the crypto market have ended with strong rebounds. For instance, after the March-April tariff scare, Bitcoin climbed from $76,000 to $100,000 within weeks. Similarly, the October crash led to a bounce from $105,000 to $116,000. Analysts say if the Fear & Greed Index rises above 55 for two consecutive periods, fueled by factors like large ETF inflows or a more dovish Fed, sentiment could flip to greed.
This would likely push Bitcoin past $120,000 and beyond. Until then, the market seems content to stay in a “discount” zone, waiting for proofs like on-chain accumulation and supportive monetary policy.
What Does This All Mean?
While the trade deal removes a major source of uncertainty, crypto markets tend to move on proof rather than promises. The cautious mood is understandable given last month’s losses. For investors, this means patience might pay off; buying during fear has historically yielded strong gains. Watching for clearer signals like ETF inflows or Fed policy shifts will be key. The deal is a start, but the market’s real “buy” signal may come only once peace shows it can create profits.
In summary, the US-China trade truce is a positive step, yet the crypto market remains cautious and fearful. Bitcoin’s price and sentiment hold steady but subdued, reflecting traders’ wariness. While the current “Fear” reading suggests buying opportunities, meaningful recovery depends on fresh catalysts in the coming weeks.
Written By Fazal Ul Vahab C H