Synopsis: Morgan Stanley says Bitcoin has entered its “fall” season—a phase to harvest profits before a downturn after strong gains since the 2024 halving and emerging bearish market signals.
Bitcoin’s rally may be slowing, and global investors are watching closely. Morgan Stanley now says the crypto market is entering its “fall” season a time to harvest profits before a possible downturn. The bank’s analysts believe Bitcoin’s long-term rhythm looks like the turning of seasons. It rises steadily for three years, then drops in the fourth.
Bitcoin’s ‘Seasonal’ Cycle Explained
Morgan Stanley strategist Denny Galindo explained this seasonal view in a podcast titled Crypto Goes Mainstream. He compared Bitcoin’s four-year cycle to spring, summer, fall, and winter. Each season represents a different stage of its market behavior.
According to Galindo, spring signals recovery after a bear market, while summer shows explosive gains driven by optimism and supply reduction after a halving. Fall, the phase we are in now, is when traders secure profits as enthusiasm starts to fade. Then comes winter the bear market that can last a year or more.
“Fall is the time for harvest,” Galindo said. “This is when we take gains and prepare for cold months ahead.” That line stuck with me it sounds like the advice of a patient farmer more than a crypto analyst.
Bitcoin’s last halving in April 2024 kicked off another growth phase. Prices climbed from around $50,000 to over $120,000 by mid-2025. But by November 2025, the world’s top cryptocurrency had slipped near $103,000. Galindo sees this decline as the first chill before winter.
Market Signals Turn Cautious
The warning seems timely. On November 5, Bitcoin fell below $99,000, moving under its 365-day average a key technical mark tracked by many traders. CryptoQuant’s Julio Moreno said that such a break usually signals a bearish trend ahead.
Research analyst Andri Fauzan Adziima agreed, saying the drop “officially marked a technical bear market.” Liquidity in the crypto market is also stagnating. Market-maker Wintermute noted that fresh inflows from stablecoins, ETFs, and corporate digital asset treasuries have slowed. That means fewer buyers may support prices if selling grows.
These indicators don’t necessarily spell disaster, but they highlight a cooling period after two strong years. Personally, it feels like the market is taking a deep breath before deciding its next move.
Institutional Investors Stay the Course
Despite short-term corrections, major investors haven’t left the field. Morgan Stanley’s Michael Cyprys said many institutions now view Bitcoin as a legitimate portfolio component, often comparing it to digital gold. ETFs and regulated funds have made entry easier and safer for them.
Cyprys added that institutional money moves slowly because large asset managers face long-term mandates and internal controls. Still, the pace of adoption is rising. Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States now hold assets worth over $137 billion, while Ether ETFs total about $22 billion.
Even if this season feels like fall, some analysts believe the next price cycle could push Bitcoin toward $200,000 before winter truly hits. Yet others argue that the maturing crypto market might soften future downturns. Bitcoin has always moved in waves. Understanding when to plant and when to harvest could make all the difference for investors this time around.
Written By Fazal Ul Vahab C H
