Synopsis: Bitcoin’s usual “Uptober” magic fades in 2025 as prices slip 2.3% below monthly open, marking its first negative October since 2018 and possibly weakest since 2014.
Bitcoin’s famed “Uptober” seems to be losing its magic this year. What once symbolized explosive October rallies has turned into disappointment for traders everywhere. As of October 27, Bitcoin hovers near $115,000 around 2.3% below its monthly open near $117,500. That puts 2025 on course for the first negative October close in seven years and possibly the weakest since 2014’s 13% crash.
Usually, October is Bitcoin’s lucky month with average gains of 20%. Over the last decade, it turned green in 10 out of 12 years. In bullish seasons like 2013, 2017, and 2021, October returns soared over 40%. But 2025? It’s barely holding the line. Frankly, this feels like the “worst Uptober ever,” a sentiment echoed loudly across trader circles online.
Euphoria to Liquidation Nightmare
Early October looked unstoppable. Bitcoin surged past $126,000 on October 6, backed by rising ETF inflows and dovish Federal Reserve expectations. Traders cheered as daily volumes spiked and optimism filled crypto Twitter. Yet, as quickly as it came, that rally collapsed.
By mid-month, prices slid to $108,000, wiping out more than $20 billion in leveraged positions. Exchange data showed panic among overleveraged longs, while large holders quietly booked profits. Even with a mild rebound toward $115,000 in the final week, confidence remains shaky. Personally, it feels like one of those classic crypto months hope, heartbreak, recovery all compacted into four weeks.
CoinGlass data paints a clear picture: to avoid the worst October in 12 years, Bitcoin must avoid closing down more than 4%. Unfortunately, it’s an uphill climb with just days left before the monthly candle closes.
History Isn’t on Bitcoin’s Side
Uptober has long carried mythic status in crypto history. In 2013, Bitcoin jumped 60%. In 2017, it climbed 50%, and in 2021, nearly 40%. Those gains built the “Uptober” legend. Even last year, 2024, gave a modest 10% rise amid halving anticipation.
Now, 2025 may go down as a rare red year in an ongoing bull market a reminder that not every cycle follows the script. Market watchers like economist Timothy Peterson highlight how 60% of Bitcoin’s annual upside usually occurs after October 3. That means historically, late months deliver strong comebacks. Perhaps this sluggish October could still pave the way for another “Moonvember,” as traders half-jokingly call it. Honestly, crypto has a way of surprising even the skeptics.
Still, this year’s broader backdrop can’t be ignored. Trade tensions between the U.S. and China, inflation jitters, and profit-taking by whales all chipped away at buyer momentum. While ETFs continue to absorb 6.7% of Bitcoin’s supply, institutional flows alone couldn’t stop the wave of selling.
Can the Fed Save Uptober’s Final Days?
All eyes now turn to the U.S. Federal Reserve’s meeting on October 29–30. Markets expect a 25-basis-point rate cut, already priced in with 99% odds. If Chair Jerome Powell hints at an end to tightening, risk assets could rebound swiftly. Bitcoin might revisit $120,000 or close the month green after all.
But if inflation numbers surprise on the high side, the comeback could stall fast. Analysts warn that a hawkish message might push BTC back toward the $100,000 zone. Forecasts remain split: CoinCodex sees an October 31 target near $126,000, while others, like Tom Lee, still call for $150,000 by year-end.
History suggests bad Octobers often precede booming fourth quarters. 2014’s slump led to a strong recovery the next year. So maybe there’s still hope. Uptober might be failing, but Moonvember could take the stage next. For now, BTC faithful can only hold tight and perhaps laugh through the pain.
Written By Fazal Ul Vahab C H