{"id":92505,"date":"2023-02-27T16:10:00","date_gmt":"2023-02-27T10:40:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/tradebrains.in\/features\/?p=92505"},"modified":"2023-02-27T16:06:18","modified_gmt":"2023-02-27T10:36:18","slug":"countries-debt-trap","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/tradebrains.in\/features\/countries-debt-trap\/","title":{"rendered":"Creditors, politicians and &#8216;morons&#8217;: who&#8217;s really caught in the government debt trap?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"trade-content_2\" style=\"margin-left: auto;margin-right: auto;text-align: center;\" id=\"trade-3713761245\"><p><a href=\"https:\/\/tradebrains.in\/get\/telegram\/\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-101992\" src=\"https:\/\/tradebrains.in\/features\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/telegram-channel-300x119.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"148\" height=\"59\" \/><\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/news.google.com\/publications\/CAAqBwgKMN3Epgswxc--Aw?hl=en-IN&amp;gl=IN&amp;ceid=IN%3Aen\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-123430\" src=\"https:\/\/tradebrains.in\/features\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/follow-on-google-news-300x82.png\" alt=\"follow-on-google-news\" width=\"222\" height=\"61\" srcset=\"https:\/\/tradebrains.in\/features\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/follow-on-google-news-300x82.png 300w, https:\/\/tradebrains.in\/features\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/follow-on-google-news-150x41.png 150w, https:\/\/tradebrains.in\/features\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/follow-on-google-news.png 468w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 222px) 100vw, 222px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<\/div><p>The queues of cars from Laos waiting to fill their tanks at petrol stations across the border in Thailand have sparked fears the landlocked Asian country\u2019s debt is spiralling out of control and could go the way of Sri Lanka.<\/p><div class=\"trade-content_7\" style=\"margin-left: auto;margin-right: auto;text-align: center;\" id=\"trade-125752927\"><!-- Composite Start --> \r\n <div id=\"M923760ScriptRootC1549812\"> \r\n <\/div> \r\n <script src=\"https:\/\/jsc.mgid.com\/t\/r\/tradebrains.in.1549812.js\" async> \r\n <\/script> \r\n <!-- Composite End --><\/div><p>Laos has been struggling with heavy debt mainly due to mega infrastructure projects, such as the Laos-China railway.<\/p><p>Around half of the country\u2019s projected debt stock of over 100 per cent of GDP is owed to China, but despite claims to the contrary, Laos is not debt-trapped by Beijing. The answer to why lies in the mutual dilemma both countries face.<\/p><p>Indebted infrastructure projects can affect both the debtor and the creditor \u2014 a \u2018debt trap\u2019 for a debtor often suggests a \u2018debt trap\u2019 for a creditor with non-performing assets.<\/p><div class=\"trade-content_5\" id=\"trade-3135518099\"><script async src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-4023722985638610\"\r\n     crossorigin=\"anonymous\"><\/script>\r\n<!-- in_content_2_news -->\r\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-4023722985638610\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"7925020301\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"auto\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div><p>It is therefore within both nations\u2019 interest to contribute to Laos\u2019 economic growth and generate sustainable economic and social returns from projects.<\/p><p>As the world\u2019s public and private debt reached 247 per cent of global GDP in 2021 (almost 20 per cent above pre-pandemic levels), according to the latest available figures, knowing which countries might default and risk plunging into economic turmoil can make a difference to future outcomes.<\/p><p>Along with Laos, Sri Lanka and Japan also have a growing mountain of public debts. The origins of their debt may vary but are connected by a common thread \u2014 it will fall on the next generation if left unchecked.<\/p><p>How the debt story plays out depends on the actions of both the debtor and the creditor.<\/p><p>Sri Lanka defaulted on its debt in May last year and its sovereign debt reached 103 percent of GDP in 2021.<\/p><p>Two-fifths are owed to diverse external creditors, exposing Sri Lanka to complex coordination challenges.<\/p><div class=\"trade-content-10\" id=\"trade-750977804\"><script async src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-4023722985638610\"\r\n     crossorigin=\"anonymous\"><\/script>\r\n<!-- in_content_3_news -->\r\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-4023722985638610\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"2969612066\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"auto\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div><p>One expert described the crisis as caused \u201calmost entirely by unwise policy decisions made by the Rajapaksa administration\u201d \u2014 Mahinda Rajapaksa was sworn in as President in 2005 before appointing family members to senior political positions.<\/p><p>Years of poor political decisions resulted in loss sharing between ordinary Sri Lankans, foreign taxpayers and wealthy investors.<\/p><p>The government reached an agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in September 2022 on a four-year program to be supported by a USD 2.9 billion financing arrangement.<\/p><p>However, the IMF\u2019s financing precondition requires burden sharing, in line with a \u2018comparability of treatment\u2019, among Sri Lanka\u2019s diverse creditors \u2014 nations and international bondholders in the market.<\/p><p>Official bilateral creditors such as China, India and Japan are now in a tug-of-war due to their geopolitical interests.There is also tension between official creditors and profit-motivated private investors Japan is also a concern, with its government gross debt at 262 percent of GDP at the end of 2021, nearly doubling since 2000.<\/p><p>There\u2019s been repetitive government growth strategies such as Japan&#8217;s Revitalisation Strategy, and politically driven extravagant spending, which ended up as unaccomplished aspirations.<\/p><p>The IMF points out the government\u2019s tendency to present optimistic growth prospects and recommends \u2018adopting more realistic projections.\u2019 The government\u2019s funding gap is being filled by just one taker. \u201cThe Bank of Japan is effectively the only willing purchaser in the market for Japanese government bonds,\u201d Japanese economist Kato Izuru wrote last month.<\/p><p>The bank\u2019s prolonged purchase of bonds since 2013 has allowed the illusion of affordability and for government borrowing to persist \u2014 creating distorted bond market conditions.<\/p><p>In January, the central bank decided to maintain its policy to purchase bonds without setting an upper limit.<\/p><p>It allowed ten-year bond yields to remain at around zero percent. The government and the central bank are trapped in a vicious cycle of excessive debt burden.<\/p><p>There is a shadow of fiscal dominance where central bank caps interest rates at low levels to reduce the costs of servicing government debt.<\/p><p>Economics tells us that Japan cannot keep interest rates low, maintain a stable currency and keep up free capital flows simultaneously. The theory is called \u2018the impossible trinity.\u2019 The yen, staying around 130 per US dollar, has lost value since the beginning of global monetary tightening trends and is 42 per cent cheaper than the highest value of 76 yen per dollar in January 2012.<\/p><p>A weaker yen implies the products and services offered by Japanese labour are at bargain prices while households face import-induced price hikes.<\/p><p>Core consumer prices rose by 4.2 per cent in January 2023, compared to a year earlier, the highest since 1981. A rise in interest rates will soon become inevitable despite the bank\u2019s insistence on easing monetary policy, as long as capital control is an inconceivable option.<\/p><p>Japan\u2019s political motives cannot survive market forces in the long term. Politically motivated narratives negate a sense of urgency, prolong the affordability illusion and postpone needed actions.<\/p><p>Still, market forces do not wait forever and penalise unwise policy decisions. A nation\u2019s bargaining power over market forces is submissive. We are yet to see how long Japan can escape the \u2018moron risk premium\u2019.<\/p><p>What if Japan faces such a premium while emergency measures by its central bank may be depleted, unlike the UK? International politics can mislead our understanding of finances through geopolitically ill-motivated narratives. For example, claims of debt trap diplomacy or a campaign for enhanced defence capabilities against security threats.<\/p><p>Geopolitical motives may sound plausible initially, but turn out to be a false alarm or groundless.<\/p><p>Economic rationale matters for the debtor and the creditor. As there is no such thing as a free lunch.<\/p><p>So who eventually can be trapped with the debt burden? The answer varies depending on if or when the policymakers take precautionary or remedial action to avoid overburdening current and future generations. (360info.org) FZH<\/p><div class=\"trade-after-content\" id=\"trade-2271808224\"><div id=\"taboola-below-article-thumbnails\"><\/div>\r\n<script type=\"text\/javascript\">\r\n  window._taboola = window._taboola || [];\r\n  _taboola.push({\r\n    mode: 'alternating-thumbnails-a',\r\n    container: 'taboola-below-article-thumbnails',\r\n    placement: 'Below Article Thumbnails',\r\n    target_type: 'mix'\r\n  });\r\n<\/script>\r\n<script type=\"text\/javascript\">\r\n  window._taboola = window._taboola || [];\r\n  _taboola.push({flush: true});\r\n<\/script><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The queues of cars from Laos waiting to fill their tanks at petrol stations across the border in Thailand have sparked fears the landlocked Asian country\u2019s debt is spiralling out of control and could go the way of Sri Lanka. Laos has been struggling with heavy debt mainly due to mega infrastructure projects, such as [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13,"featured_media":14235,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1697,31],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-92505","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","category-news"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v20.5 (Yoast SEO v25.0) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Creditors, politicians and &#039;morons&#039;: who&#039;s really caught in the government debt trap? - Trade Brains Features<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The queues of cars from Laos waiting to fill their tanks at petrol stations across the border in Thailand have sparked fears the landlocked Asian country\u2019s debt is spiralling out of control and could go the way of Sri Lanka.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/tradebrains.in\/features\/countries-debt-trap\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Creditors, politicians and &#039;morons&#039;: who&#039;s really caught in the government debt trap?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The queues of cars from Laos waiting to fill their tanks at petrol stations across the border in Thailand have sparked fears the landlocked Asian country\u2019s debt is spiralling out of control and could go the way of Sri Lanka.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/tradebrains.in\/features\/countries-debt-trap\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Trade Brains Features\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/TradeBrainsOfficial\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2023-02-27T10:40:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/tradebrains.in\/features\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/Dollars-1-Cover-Image.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1280\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"854\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"PTI News\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:image\" content=\"https:\/\/tradebrains.in\/features\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/Dollars-1-Cover-Image.jpg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@TradeBrainsGrp\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@TradeBrainsGrp\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"PTI News\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"5 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/tradebrains.in\/features\/countries-debt-trap\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/tradebrains.in\/features\/countries-debt-trap\/\",\"name\":\"Creditors, politicians and 'morons': who's really caught in the government debt trap? 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