In 2025, India’s commodity derivatives market is thriving with a pan-India turnover of about Rs 280.6 lakh crore, marking an 87% year-on-year rise. The market now includes sophisticated products like commodity options and index derivatives, with non-agricultural commodities dominating the trade. This sector is poised for robust growth with ongoing regulatory enhancements and expanding market participation.
With a market capitalization of Rs 47,693.67 crore, the shares of Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd were trading at Rs 9,352.00 per share, increasing around 1.08 percent as compared to the previous closing price of Rs 9,252.15 apiece.
Brokerges Recommendation
Morgan Stanley, one of the well-known brokerages in India, maintained an ‘Underweight’ rating on this stock with a target price of Rs 5,860 apiece, indicating a potential downside of 37 percent from Friday’s price of Rs 9,337.95 per share.
Morgan Stanley said MCX’s Q2 profit after tax (PAT) was in line with estimates, while core EBITDA (excluding non-operating income) also met expectations despite a 2% reduction in costs. The exchange had faced a technical issue on October 28, but has identified the root cause and taken steps to address the constraints to prevent recurrence.
According to the brokerage, average daily transaction revenue (ADTR) saw a sharp spike in October to ₹9.5 crore, before moderating to ₹8 crore over the past 10 days. Morgan Stanley mentioned that if this higher ADTR is sustained, there could be a meaningful upside risk to earnings-per-share (EPS) forecasts.
On the other hand, UBS raised its price target for MCX to Rs 12,000, highlighting strong earnings potential despite expected moderation in trading volumes. The upgrade follows robust October performance driven by high bullion prices, market volatility, and increased energy commodity trading. Among 11 analysts, sentiment remains mixed five ‘Buy’, four ‘Hold’, and two ‘Sell’, reflecting cautious optimism on near-term growth.
Financial & Operational Highlights
Recently, MCX delivered a strong Q2FY26 performance, with revenue rising 31% to Rs 374 crore from Rs 286 crore last year, driven by higher trading volumes. Net profit climbed 28% to Rs 197 crore, reflecting improved operational efficiency and sustained growth momentum in the exchange’s core business.
MCX showcased strong business momentum with the bullion segment’s ADT share rising from 44% to 57%, driven by new product launches like Gold Mini and Gold Ten Futures. The success of monthly Gold Options also encouraged the introduction of Silver and Silver Mini contracts, enhancing product diversity and investor participation.
Further strengthening its offerings, MCX expanded into agri and metal commodities with Cardamom and Nickel Futures. The exchange also introduced monthly Options on its MCX iCOMDEX Bullion Index (BULLDEX), combining Gold and Silver exposure. These strategic launches underline MCX’s focus on innovation and deepening market participation across asset classes.
The Multi-Commodity Exchange of India (MCX) is the country’s leading commodity derivatives exchange, offering a diverse range of products across bullion, energy, and metals. MCX plays a pivotal role in providing a transparent, technology-driven platform for price discovery and efficient risk management in commodities trading.
Written by Abhishek Singh
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