Synopsis: Bloomberg strategist Mike McGlone warns Bitcoin could crash to $10,000 by 2026, threatening major altcoins like Ethereum, Cardano, and XRP with severe losses.
Bitcoin’s recent weakness has left traders increasingly uneasy. The world’s largest cryptocurrency is hovering near $87,000, well below its recent peaks. As uncertainty grows, several market watchers now warn that deeper losses may lie ahead.
One particularly bearish forecast has rattled the crypto community. Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Mike McGlone believes bitcoin could plunge to $10,000 by 2026. Such a move would represent a staggering decline of nearly 90% from current levels.
The warning comes as traders brace for heightened volatility heading into the new year. Options markets show rising demand for downside protection, signaling caution across the board. If bitcoin slides further, major altcoins such as Ethereum, Cardano, and XRP could face even sharper drawdowns.
Options Market Points
Derivatives data suggests traders are positioning for more pain. Put options have piled up around the $85,000 strike price, indicating expectations that bitcoin may soon break below this level.
The December 26 options expiry has emerged as a critical point of focus. Many traders have built defensive positions around that date. At the same time, 30-day implied volatility has climbed toward 45%, according to data from Derive.xyz.
Skew metrics reinforce the cautious outlook. Short-term skew remains deeply negative, reflecting strong demand for downside hedges. Meanwhile, longer-dated skew sits near minus five, suggesting bearish sentiment stretches well into 2026.
“There’s clear defensive positioning going into year-end,” said Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro. He added that the uptrend established in late November has fully broken, with recent rebounds failing to gain momentum.
Long-Term Holders Reduce Exposure
Bitcoin briefly climbed to $90,000 earlier this week before slipping back below $87,000. The pullback occurred even as equity markets showed resilience, highlighting bitcoin’s recent underperformance amid broader macro uncertainty.
On-chain data paints a similarly cautious picture. CryptoQuant shows short-term holders have remained underwater for more than a month. More notably, Glassnode estimates long-term holders have sold nearly 500,000 BTC since July, adding persistent selling pressure.
Recent price action suggests weakening demand. Short-lived rallies are followed quickly by renewed selling, a pattern reminiscent of October’s sell-off, according to Kuptsikevich.
Ethereum appears slightly more balanced by comparison. While short-term ETH skew remains negative, longer-dated indicators are closer to neutral. Still, traders have accumulated significant put positions around the $2,500 level for the December 26 expiry.
Cycle Reversal Toward $10,000
McGlone’s outlook stands out as one of the most bearish among major analysts. He argues that bitcoin’s surge toward six-figure levels may have laid the groundwork for a sharp reversal.
“Bitcoin’s move toward six figures may have sparked a cycle back toward $10,000, potentially by 2026,” McGlone said. In his view, periods of extreme wealth creation often end with powerful mean reversions, especially during economic downturns.
He also challenges bitcoin’s scarcity narrative, pointing to the ever-growing supply of cryptocurrencies. The proliferation of digital assets, he argues, has diluted bitcoin’s dominance. Despite recent warnings, bitcoin is down only about 5% in 2025 through mid-December.
McGlone draws parallels with past speculative bubbles, noting that deflationary phases following inflationary booms often reset asset prices dramatically. Current market conditions, he says, resemble equity market peaks seen before major corrections.
Leverage and Global Risks Shape the 2026 Outlook
Federal Reserve rate cuts played a limited role as direct catalysts this year. Instead, they signaled an end to tightening, allowing investors to maintain risk exposure. “That patience helped push bitcoin to new highs earlier in the year,” Kuptsikevich explained.
However, leverage across crypto markets remains elevated. The liquidation wave seen in October exposed structural fragility, showing how crowded positioning can amplify corrections when sentiment shifts.
Geopolitical uncertainty is likely to remain a key driver of volatility into 2026. As macro risks and policy changes persist, traders appear braced for ongoing turbulence.
If McGlone’s forecast proves accurate, the broader crypto market could shrink dramatically. Altcoins typically magnify bitcoin’s moves, meaning Ethereum, Cardano, and XRP could face outsized losses.
Investors remain divided on bitcoin’s future. While some analysts still see a path toward $125,000 or higher, bearish signals are steadily mounting. The months ahead may determine whether crypto enters a new rally or a far deeper correction.
Written By Fazal Ul Vahab C H
