Synopsis: Two big US events today: Supreme Court tariff ruling and jobs report. These could spark wild swings in crypto. Furthermore, Bitcoin could face volatility near $91K from options expiry.
The cryptocurrency market stands at a critical junction today. Two massive US events will unfold within hours, threatening to shake the entire digital asset sector. Traders worldwide are bracing for impact as Bitcoin hovers near $91,000 and the total crypto market cap struggles around $3.08 trillion.
The next 24 hours could redefine market direction. All eyes are fixed on the Supreme Court’s tariff ruling and fresh unemployment numbers. These events carry the potential to trigger sharp price swings across all cryptocurrencies.
Supreme Court Tariff Decision
The US Supreme Court will announce its decision on President Trump’s tariffs at 10:00 am ET today. Last April, Trump imposed sweeping tariffs ranging from 10% to 50% on multiple goods. He called this aggressive trade policy “Liberation Day”.
The Court must now determine whether these tariffs are legal under existing laws. Legal experts believe the tariffs exceeded presidential authority. More than 1,000 firms have joined lawsuits challenging the tariff policy.
Prediction markets show a 76% probability that the Court will strike down the tariffs. If invalidated, the government may need to refund over $133.5 billion already collected. Some estimates suggest refunds could reach $600 billion based on total revenue generated.
This ruling carries massive implications for market sentiment. A decision against tariffs could initially boost risk assets like cryptocurrencies. However, experts warn the uncertainty could also trigger chaos across financial markets. Bitcoin typically sells off alongside equities during trade escalations and policy shocks.
Jobs Report Data
Meanwhile, the US unemployment report will drop at 8:30 am ET. Markets expect unemployment to fall slightly to 4.5% from last month’s 4.6% reading. This data will provide crucial insights into economic health and Federal Reserve policy direction.
Strong employment numbers could hurt cryptocurrency prices significantly. Lower unemployment would reduce expectations for interest rate cuts this year. The probability of a January rate cut already sits near zero at 13%.
Conversely, weak jobs data could spark a crypto rally. Rising unemployment would strengthen recession fears and boost calls for Fed rate cuts. Lower interest rates typically benefit risk assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum.
The combination of both events creates a perfect storm for volatility. Traders must navigate dual catalysts that could push markets in opposite directions.
Also Read: Study On Southeast Asia Reveals $75 Billion Lost to Pig-Butchering Scam Worldwide
Bitcoin And Ethereum Options Expiry
Adding fuel to the fire, massive options contracts expire today at 8:00 UTC. Data from Deribit shows approximately $2.2 billion to $2.4 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options will expire.
Bitcoin options account for roughly $1.84 billion to $1.89 billion of this total. The maximum pain level sits at $90,000, very close to current trading levels. BTC currently trades near $91,000, making this expiry particularly significant.
Ethereum options worth $396 million will also expire today. The ETH max pain level stands at $3,100, almost exactly where Ethereum trades currently. This proximity to max pain levels suggests heightened short-term volatility is likely.
Options expiry often creates sharp price movements as traders adjust positions. Large liquidations could occur if prices break key support or resistance levels.
Market Positioned For Wild Price Swings
The cryptocurrency sector faces exceptional uncertainty today. Furthermore, trading volumes have already reached $110 billion in the past 24 hours. This elevated activity reflects nervous traders repositioning ahead of major announcements.
Bitcoin tested critical support between $89,000 and $90,000 in recent sessions. A close above $91,700 could trigger a short squeeze toward $93,000. However, a drop below $89,000 risks opening the $86,000 to $87,000 zone.
Market analysts warn that the next 24 hours will be especially important for crypto traders. The convergence of macro events and options expiry creates conditions for amplified volatility. Leveraged positions in derivatives markets could exacerbate any sudden price movements.
Social media discussions highlight growing concern among traders about today’s “wild sessions”. Some have labeled today as potentially “the worst day of 2026” due to overlapping risks.
Therefore, investors should exercise caution and prepare for significant price action. The outcomes of these events will likely set the tone for cryptocurrency markets throughout January 2026.
Written By Fazal Ul Vahab C H
