To understand Delhivery’s remarkable turnaround, we must rewind to March 2025, when the stock hit its 52-week low of Rs 236.53. At that point, investors had lost faith. The company was battling margin pressures, integration challenges from previous acquisitions, and fierce competition from both captive logistics arms of e-commerce giants and aggressive third-party players.
Fast forward to November 2025, and the narrative has completely shifted. The stock trades at the Rs 430 level, marking a stunning recovery that has outpaced most indices and peer stocks. This wasn’t luck; it was the result of strategic moves, operational discipline, and a sector tailwind that’s only beginning to gather momentum.
The Ecom Express Acquisition: A Game-Changing Consolidation
The catalyst for Delhivery’s resurgence came in April 2025, when the company announced its acquisition of rival Ecom Express for Rs 1,407 crore. What made this deal remarkable wasn’t just its size but also its timing and valuation. Ecom Express, once valued at Rs 7,300 crore, was acquired at an 80% discount, a distress sale that reflected the brutal realities of India’s logistics sector.
For Delhivery, this was transformative. The acquisition immediately expanded its pin code coverage from approximately 18,000 to over 18,830, strengthened its last-mile delivery capabilities in Tier 2 and Tier 3 cities, and consolidated market share in a fragmented industry. Post-acquisition, Delhivery’s market share in the third-party logistics segment jumped to an estimated 27-30%, giving it dominant positioning in a market where captive players like Flipkart’s Ekart and Amazon’s ATS control roughly half the volumes.
The Competition Commission of India approved the deal in June 2025, and by the July-September quarter, integration was well underway. While the process incurred one-time costs of approximately Rs 90 crore, the long-term benefits immediately became apparent. Delhivery reported that Ecom Express was retaining 50-60% of its volumes post-deal, well above the initial guidance of 30%. This retention rate signalled customer confidence and operational continuity, key ingredients for successful consolidation.
Festive Season Volumes: Breaking Records and Expectations
If the Ecom Express acquisition laid the foundation, the festive season provided the rocket fuel. India’s e-commerce sector experienced explosive growth during the July-September and October-November periods, driven by Diwali shopping, improved rural demand, and the expansion of quick commerce.
Delhivery capitalised spectacularly. In Q2 FY26, the company handled 246 million express parcel shipments, a staggering 32% year-on-year increase. On its peak day during the festive season, Delhivery dispatched a record 7.2 million orders, showcasing the scalability of its network. Sept-Oct 2025 marked another milestone, with the company crossing 100 million transportation orders.
This volume surge wasn’t just about quantity. It demonstrated Delhivery’s operational efficiency and network resilience. Despite challenges like heavy rainfall, holidays, and GST rate changes, the company maintained service levels and even improved margins in key segments.
In Q2 FY26, the part-truckload (PTL) business, which caters to B2B customers, also showed strong momentum. Tonnage grew 12% year-on-year to 477,000 metric tonnes, with service EBITDA margins expanding to 8.5% from just 2.9% in the prior year. This margin expansion reflected better yield management, improved capacity utilisation, and the benefits of automation.
Financial Turnaround: From Losses to Profitability
Delhivery’s financial performance through the first half of FY2026 validated its strategic direction, even as quarterly volatility created some confusion. In Q1 FY26, the company reported a net profit of Rs 91 crore, representing a 67.5% year-on-year increase. EBITDA margins improved to 6.5%, with service-level EBITDA reaching 13%.
Q2 FY26 presented a more complex picture. On a consolidated basis, the company reported a loss of Rs 50.38 crore, primarily due to integration costs of Rs 90 crore related to the Ecom Express acquisition. However, excluding these one-time expenses, the underlying business remained profitable with PAT of Rs 59 crore and EBITDA of Rs 150 crore at a 5.9% margin.
Revenue growth remained robust across both quarters. Q2 FY26 revenue reached Rs 2,546 crore, up 16% year-on-year, while the first half of the fiscal year saw revenues of Rs 4,840 crore, an 11% increase over H1 FY25. Express parcel revenue jumped 24% year-on-year in Q2, driven by both volume growth and strategic pricing.
Critically, management maintained its guidance for service EBITDA margins to reach 16-18% by the end of FY26. This target, if achieved, would represent a significant milestone in Delhivery’s journey toward sustainable profitability. The company’s focus has clearly shifted from growth-at-any-cost to margin-led expansion, a maturation that investors have rewarded.
Market Position: Dominating Through Consolidation
Delhivery’s strengthened market position is perhaps its most valuable asset. With over 20% market share in e-commerce express parcels pre-acquisition, the addition of Ecom Express has created a logistics behemoth. CEO Sahil Barua noted that excluding the captive arms of Amazon and Flipkart, Delhivery now commands “well over half of the market.”
This dominance brings tangible advantages. Larger scale enables better negotiating power with customers, improved asset utilization, and the ability to invest in technology and infrastructure that smaller competitors cannot afford. Delhivery’s network now covers more than 18,800 pin codes, giving it unmatched reach in India’s vast and complex geography.
The competitive landscape has been fundamentally altered. While threats from captive logistics arms persist, Amazon’s ATS and Flipkart’s Ekart handle roughly 50% of e-commerce volumes; the third-party space has consolidated significantly. Other players like Xpressbees, Shadowfax, and DTDC face a much stronger competitor in Delhivery, potentially triggering further industry consolidation.
Government Initiatives: Building the Infrastructure for Growth
Delhivery’s recent rally is closely linked to India’s ongoing infrastructure transformation, which is creating strong tailwinds for organized logistics players.
The PM Gati Shakti National Master Plan (October 2021), with a Rs 100 lakh crore allocation, integrates 57 central ministries and all 36 states on a unified digital platform, eliminating planning silos, reducing delays, and accelerating infrastructure projects. For logistics companies, this translates to faster transit times, lower costs, and more predictable operations.
The National Logistics Policy (NLP) (September 2022) targets reducing logistics costs from 13-14% to levels comparable with developed countries. Digital initiatives like the Unified Logistics Interface Platform (ULIP) and the Logistics Data Bank enable real-time cargo tracking and enhance supply chain transparency.
Dedicated Freight Corridors (DFCs), with 96.4% of the 2,843 km network operational as of March 2025, improve rail freight efficiency by connecting major manufacturing hubs with ports, reducing transit times and costs for long-haul logistics.
The Bharatmala Pariyojana, covering 34,800 km of highway development, along with 35 planned multimodal logistics parks (MMLPs) worth Rs 8.54 lakh crore, is enhancing road connectivity and providing world-class warehousing and logistics infrastructure.
India’s logistics sector, valued at $215 billion in 2021, is projected to grow at a CAGR of 10.7% through 2026, potentially reaching $800 billion by 2030. Infrastructure improvements, digitalization, and rising trade volumes position technology-enabled logistics players like Delhivery for long-term growth.
E-Commerce Boom: The Rising Tide Lifting All Boats
India’s e-commerce sector, worth $103 billion in 2023 and poised to reach $200-327 billion by 2027-2030, remains the strongest demand driver for logistics, propelled by rising rural internet access, 600+ million smartphone users, mature digital payments, and growing consumer trust.
Quick commerce is surging, with sub-30-minute delivery platforms projected to exceed $6 billion in GMV by FY2025, growing 75-85% annually. Delhivery’s presence is still modest, with 20-25 dark stores and plans to add 35-40 by Q4 FY26, potentially contributing Rs 80-100 crore over time.
E-commerce logistics is expanding rapidly: the segment is valued at $6.65 billion in 2025 and is expected to hit $10.29 billion by 2030 at a 9.1% CAGR, outpacing broader logistics growth due to demand for speed, reliability, and tech-enabled delivery.
Social commerce adds further momentum, expected to reach $16-20 billion by FY2025 with 55-60% CAGR; platforms like Meesho, which depend entirely on third-party logistics, provide steady volume pipelines.
The offline-to-online retail shift continues, with penetration rising from 4.7% in 2019 to a projected 10.7% in 2024, creating a structural, cycle-resistant demand tailwind for logistics companies.
Competitive Landscape: How Delhivery Stacks Up
Understanding Delhivery’s position requires examining its peer group. India’s logistics sector features a diverse set of players, each with distinct strengths and market positioning.
Container Corporation of India (CONCOR), with a market capitalization of Rs 39,500 crore, remains the largest logistics stock by market cap. As a government-owned entity, CONCOR specializes in rail-based container transportation and multimodal logistics. Its ROCE of 13.9% and consistent dividend payouts make it a stable, defensive play. However, its 5-year revenue growth of just 6.36% reflects the challenges in traditional rail freight.
Blue Dart Express, valued at approximately Rs 14,300 crore, occupies the premium express delivery segment. With a 16.3% ROCE and consistent profitability, Blue Dart trades at a P/E of 53.8, reflecting its quality and market leadership. The company’s dedicated cargo airlines give it control over the entire delivery chain, particularly for international shipments.
VRL Logistics, with a market cap of Rs 4,900 crore, focuses on surface transportation and has built a reputation for reliability in the less-than-truckload segment. Its ROCE of 15.7% is decent, though recent profit declines have pressured valuations. VRL’s strength lies in its extensive network across 24 states and its focus on operational efficiency.
Transport Corporation of India (TCI), valued at Rs 8,800 crore, offers integrated logistics solutions across multiple modes. With a ROCE of 20.52% and relatively stable margins, TCI represents a diversified play in the sector.
Zinka Logistics Solutions (BlackBuck), a newer entrant focused on digital freight matching, represents the tech-enabled future of logistics. While still building scale, BlackBuck’s platform approach could disrupt traditional trucking operations.
Delhivery’s competitive advantage lies in its combination of scale, technology, and e-commerce focus. Unlike CONCOR’s rail-centric model or Blue Dart’s premium positioning, Delhivery has built a mass-market, tech-driven network optimised for e-commerce volumes. Its recent profitability improvements, combined with market share gains, position it uniquely in the sector.
What Lies Ahead: Navigating Opportunities and Challenges
Despite the impressive rally, Delhivery faces both opportunities and headwinds as it looks toward FY2027 and beyond.
Delhivery’s opportunities are meaningful, festive-season strength has carried into Q3 FY26, supporting sustained volume growth, and the Ecom Express acquisition has lifted its market share to 27-30%. The company is expanding beyond express parcels through its Direct intracity service, now in three cities and scaling to four more, along with a modest but promising rapid-commerce offering. It has also launched a financial-services arm to serve its trucker network, creating a potentially high-margin adjacency. International expansion remains another growth lever, with cross-border revenue at Rs 38 crore but poised to rise as exports and SME participation increase.
Delhivery still faces major challenges: its Q2 FY26 loss, despite being driven by one-time integration costs, shook investor confidence and revived concerns about long-term profitability, given its history of losses through FY2024. Competition from Amazon, Flipkart, and any in-house push by key client Meesho could curb volume growth, while intense pricing pressure has already driven a 3% yield decline in Q2. The success of the Ecom Express integration remains critical, as any disruption could hurt service quality and lead to volume leakage. Broader macro risks such as slower e-commerce growth, weaker consumer demand, or global trade tensions could further constrain volumes, and with the stock trading above 200x P/E, Delhivery has little room for disappointment
Conclusion: A Sector at the Cusp of Transformation
Delhivery’s 80% rally from its April 2025 lows reflects more than a stock rebound; it signals a structural shift in India’s logistics sector. Years of fragmentation, losses, and overcapacity are giving way to consolidation, efficiency, and improved profitability. The company’s rise from a struggling Rs 236 stock to a Rs 434 market leader with a 27-30% share captures this broader transformation, driven by acquisitions, tighter execution, and favourable industry tailwinds. Still, sustaining margins, managing the Ecom Express integration, and meeting ambitious growth targets remain key challenges, especially with a valuation that leaves little room for error. Yet the sector outlook is strong: massive infrastructure upgrades, policy reforms, and expanding e-commerce demand offer a long runway. As India moves toward its $5 trillion economy aspiration, logistics will become increasingly central, and companies with scale and technology advantages, like Delhivery, stand to benefit most. The rally may have surprised sceptics, but for long-term investors, it may mark the early stages of a much larger structural story, one that now depends on Delhivery’s ability to convert scale into sustained profitability.
Written by – Rajat Baddi
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