Synopsis: A leading brokerage sees a conglomerate’s consumer and digital arms fuelling a sharp re-rating, with one platform listing quietly moving from ambition to reality.
India’s largest listed company has spent the better part of three years navigating a world that kept shifting beneath it – a global energy shock, a refining squeeze, and a consumer market that ran hot then cooled in patches. Through it all, the group’s consumer-facing businesses kept growing, and analysts who stayed patient are now pointing at a target that implies meaningful upside from current levels.
Brokerage Maintains Buy, Sets Rs 1,655 Target
Motilal Oswal has held on to its Buy call on Reliance Industries, putting a target price of Rs 1,655 on the stock – about 26% above where it trades today. The note comes in the wake of RIL’s Q4 FY26 results and a management presentation where the group laid out plans to more than double earnings over the next five years.
What makes this call interesting is that it is not pinned on one business suddenly coming good. The argument is that Jio, Retail, and the energy segment are approaching a point where they can all pull in the same direction – something that proved difficult for much of FY25.
Jio Leads the Charge
The brokerage sees Jio as the clearest engine of value creation in the near term, forecasting 18% EBITDA CAGR over FY26-28E. Digital services are expected to account for roughly 80% of the group’s incremental EBITDA over this window.
The growth story here runs on several tracks. Tariff hikes remain an option that management has not closed the door on. Subscriber additions continue at a healthy clip. Per-capita data consumption hit 42.3 GB per month in Q4, and fixed broadband added nearly 10 million subscribers through the year. On the enterprise side, managed connectivity and the AI cloud platform Meghraj are seeing early but real commercial traction.
Jio finished FY26 with revenue of Rs 1,46,085 crore, EBITDA of Rs 76,255 crore, and crossed Rs 30,000 crore in PAT for the first time. Management described the platform’s IPO as “fairly imminent” – language that is notably more specific than anything said in previous quarters.
Retail Finds Its Footing
Motilal Oswal expects Reliance Retail to post roughly 12% revenue CAGR over FY26-28E. The business had its strongest quarter on record in Q4, with revenue hitting Rs 98,000 crore and EBITDA coming in at Rs 6,900 crore. Grocery and fashion stood out, while hyperlocal commerce orders grew 300% year-on-year. The store count crossed 20,000 during the quarter.
Margins, though, are not going to recover overnight. Quick commerce is scaling aggressively, and that costs money upfront. Management has been open about this – the margin picture will take time to stabilise as the online business matures.
Energy Segment Holds Its Ground
The Oil-to-Chemicals business had a quarter it would rather forget. When the Strait of Hormuz situation blew up in March, around 40% to 50% of the refinery’s usual crude supply vanished overnight. The team scrambled – sourcing barrels from Venezuela, Russia, Brazil and Mexico, while freight costs hit levels nobody had budgeted for and SAED made a late return in the final days of the financial year. That the business still delivered 10% EBITDA growth for the full year says something about how well the operation held together under pressure.
About the Company
Reliance Industries Limited is India’s largest private sector company by revenue, with businesses spanning oil-to-chemicals, retail, telecom, media and new energy. Its subsidiaries include Jio Platforms, Reliance Retail Ventures and JioStar.
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