It was a cloudy morning in Mumbai when real estate agent Rajiv Desai sat on the balcony of his 14th floor flat in Lower Parel, staring at his buzzing phone — not with excitement, but concern. “Another inquiry cancelled,” he muttered. “They said rents are absurd and registration costs too high.” It was a sentiment becoming more common across the city’s bustling property market, once deemed immune to gravity.
Over the past year, Mumbai has seen a significant year-on-year drop in both property registrations and stamp duty collections, a clear sign that the dream run of Mumbai’s real estate might be hitting the brakes. According to Nuvama report data, May 2025 saw a 4% drop in property registrations compared to the same month last year. Stamp duty collections too dropped by over 12% YoY, indicating fewer high-value transactions.
The pattern isn’t just a monthly hiccup. This has been in motion since late 2023, and experts are pointing fingers at skyrocketing prices, saturated demand, and policy fatigue. Average ticket sizes have increased substantially in the last few years, pushing even the once “affordable” ₹1-2 crore properties out of reach for the salaried class. The result? 1BHKs and 2BHKs in the ₹80 lakh to ₹1.5 crore range are seeing the biggest hit. These were traditionally in high demand across suburban hotspots like Andheri, Goregaon, and Ghatkopar — but now see fewer inquiries and sluggish movement.
Instead, the interest has started shifting. Residential demand is drifting further towards the peripheral suburbs like Panvel, Karjat, and Vasai-Virar, where possession costs are lower, and infrastructure promises (like upcoming metro links and expressways) are driving optimism. On the commercial side, there’s a visible tilt towards Navi Mumbai, Thane, and even parts of Pune. With hybrid work models taking firm root, businesses are preferring to move operations to cheaper and more spacious locations, away from Mumbai’s choking rent expectations.
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But what triggered this reversal in a city where property was once considered gold?
A mix of factors. For one, rents in Mumbai have increased by over 20-25% in the last two years, especially in prime areas. Couple that with a 40-50% rise in capital values post-pandemic due to delayed launches and construction cost inflation, and the bubble had to find its ceiling. Even previously stable zones like Bandra and Powai are now witnessing resistance from both buyers and renters. The buyer psyche has changed — people are more calculative, more mobile, and no longer emotionally driven to own in Mumbai if it doesn’t make financial sense.
Also, the government’s lack of fresh incentives since the pandemic has made the burden heavier. The reduction in stamp duty during COVID-19 had temporarily spiked transactions, but once withdrawn, affordability concerns resurfaced. Plus, a static repo rate combined with high home loan EMIs made it even harder for middle-class families to jump into ownership.
The bigger story, though, is the slow bursting of Mumbai’s real estate bubble. For decades, the belief that “Mumbai property prices never fall” dominated public consciousness. And for the most part, it held true. But now, transactions are drying up, unsold inventory is piling, and the new launches are failing to attract the same pre-booking frenzy. Builders are holding prices artificially high, unwilling to correct due to funding pressures, while buyers wait on the sidelines, hoping reality will bite soon.
Looking ahead, many experts predict a stagnant to correctional phase for Mumbai’s realty. Not a crash, but a plateau — where prices stay inflated, but transactions dip further. Unless developers become realistic and the government intervenes with real relief, Mumbai’s real estate could lose its pulse.
As Rajiv Desai puts it, “Earlier, I couldn’t keep up with the calls. Now, even the serious ones just want to rent and wait it out. The vibe has changed.” Indeed, the city that once saw real estate as an unstoppable force is now learning that even Mumbai has its limits.
Written by Roshni Mohinani
