Synopsis:
Axis Securities has revised its target price on Inox Wind Ltd to Rs. 190 per share from Rs. 230 earlier, while maintaining a BUY recommendation. The brokerage highlighted strong profitability with EBITDA and PAT beats, but also flagged concerns on execution shortfalls impacting revenue growth.
The company is a part of the Inox Group. The company is engaged in the business of manufacturing Wind Turbine Generators (WTGs) and is a wind energy solutions provider servicing IPPs, Utilities, PSUs, Corporates and Retail Investors.
With a market capitalization of Rs. 25,258 cr, the shares of Inox Wind Ltd are currently trading at Rs. 144.50 per share, increasing nearly 6% from previous close of Rs. 139.99, making a high of Rs. 148.21 per share.
Rationale
Axis Securities notes that the company delivered a strong earnings beat with EBITDA rising 35% YoY and PAT soaring 93% YoY, significantly above both internal and street expectations.
Margins expanded to 22%, comfortably ahead of the guided 17%, aided by improved realisation per MW. The company also reported Cash PAT of Rs. 186 Cr, up 168% YoY, despite a non-cash deferred tax adjustment of Rs. 40 Cr.
On the downside, revenue growth lagged expectations, coming in at Rs. 826 Cr, a 12% miss on estimates, primarily due to lower-than-expected execution. Execution stood at 146 MW, up 4% YoY but down 38% QoQ.
With FY26 guidance at 1,200 MW and FY27 at 2,000 MW, the company now requires a steep ramp-up of 1,054 MW in the next 9 months compared to 565 MW in the same period last year. To aid execution, it has operationalised its new Nacelle and Hub facility in Ahmedabad, though further clarity is awaited from management.
Given execution risks, Axis Securities has trimmed its execution estimates from 1,200 MW to 1,000 MW in FY26 and from 1,750 MW to 1,550 MW in FY27, leading to downward revisions in revenue and EBITDA forecasts.
Axis cuts its target price from Rs. 230 to Rs. 190 per share. Despite near-term challenges, the brokerage retains a BUY rating, citing positive sectoral outlook and long-term structural growth drivers.
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Orderbook
The order book remains stable at 3,108 MW (vs. 3,203 MW in Q4FY25), with inflows of 51 MW in Q1FY26. The backlog provides 2–3 years of revenue visibility and reflects a healthy mix of clients across PSUs, IPPs, and C&I players, including names like NTPC, CESC, NLC India, Hero Future Energies, Inox Clean Energy, Continuum, Integrum, and Amplus.
Inox Wind Limited is a leading Indian wind energy solutions provider that manufactures wind turbine generators (WTGs) and offers end-to-end services including wind resource assessment, site acquisition, project development, erection, commissioning, and long-term operations & maintenance. The company caters to independent power producers, utilities, and corporate investors, supporting India’s transition to renewable energy.
Written by Manideep Appana
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