Synopsis– Bitcoin is testing new highs, but a warning from Canary Capital’s Steven McClurg has reignited debate about how far the rally can continue. The executive believes the cryptocurrency still has upside, but he cautions about broader risks that could spark a downturn next year.
50% Chance of Bitcoin Hitting $150K
Steven McClurg, CEO of Canary Capital, told CNBC that Bitcoin could climb to between $140,000 and $150,000 before the end of 2025. At the time of his comment, Bitcoin traded near $117,867, implying an additional 19% to 27% potential upside. McClurg maintained there is a greater than 50% probability of Bitcoin reaching this range before a new bear market begins in 2026. His call follows Bitcoin’s surge to an all-time high of $124,128 earlier this month, supported mainly by inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs and corporate treasury purchases.
The CEO noted strong institutional activity, including interest from sovereign wealth funds, insurance companies, and pension managers. “That’s what is really driving price,” he said, stressing that such inflows have played a central role in this cycle’s momentum.
Economic Concerns
Despite acknowledging short-term upside, McClurg warned he is uncomfortable with the macroeconomic backdrop. He criticised the U.S. Federal Reserve for delaying rate cuts, saying the Fed should have acted earlier this year. He projects the first cut in September, followed by another possibility in October.
Markets seem to agree, with the CME FedWatch Tool showing an 83.6% probability of a September rate cut. Still, McClurg expects broader economic weakness to continue, pointing to rising defaults in credit cards, student loans, and mortgages. This uncertain backdrop leads him to expect a bear market in 2026. While Bitcoin could benefit from short-term optimism, McClurg sees long-term risks. “I don’t like the economic standing at all right now,” he explained. Furthermore, he hinted that corporate treasury purchases may be reaching their peak. If such buying slows, the rally could lose momentum before hitting his $150,000 target.
Industry Leaders Offer Stronger Bullish Views
Not everyone agrees with McClurg’s cautious view. Michael Saylor, executive chairman of MicroStrategy, rejected talk of another bear market. In a June interview, he declared, “Winter is not coming back,” arguing that Bitcoin’s trajectory points to eventual million-dollar valuations. Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, also sees continued upside. He said on July 26 that he expects 2026 to be another bullish year, citing long-term structural demand. Similarly, Cathie Wood of ARK Invest has suggested Bitcoin could even climb to $1.5 million by 2030 as institutional adoption deepens.
Asset manager VanEck predicts Bitcoin could reach $180,000 by late 2025, a more aggressive forecast than McClurg’s. These contrasting forecasts highlight the wide range of opinions surrounding Bitcoin’s trajectory at this critical point.
Technical Trends and Market Sentiment Support Upside
Market data provides some confirmation of McClurg’s near-term optimism. As of August 19, Bitcoin traded around $115,026, staying close to its 50-period exponential moving average. Technical signals point to potential strength, with the Relative Strength Index near 55 and the Average Directional Index at 20, suggesting a solid trend forming.
Chart patterns even indicate a possible breakout that could push Bitcoin close to $139,000 in the coming weeks. Social media sentiment remains mixed, however. Some traders warn of bull traps, while others see accelerating momentum once Bitcoin clears resistance near $126,000. This divergence reflects the broader debate: whether Bitcoin sits on the edge of another explosive rally or risks sliding into an extended correction.
Written By Fazal Ul Vahab C H
