Synopsis– Bitcoin’s price dropped under ₹1 crore ($109,000) this week, reaching a four-week low amid growing signs of market exhaustion. Long-term holders have realized 3.4 million Bitcoin worth of profits, while ETF inflows have slowed, indicating weakening momentum. After hitting highs beyond ₹1 crore earlier this year, Bitcoin is near critical support, raising questions about whether a bear market has begun.
Market Exhaustion
Data from Glassnode shows long-term Bitcoin holders realized record profits, reaching levels previously seen at market cycle tops. This profit-taking suggests many early investors are cashing out after last week’s Federal Reserve rate cut. ETF inflows, which helped push prices up, are also slowing, signaling a possible cooling phase ahead. Historically, when profit-taking spikes like this occur repeatedly, the market tends to pause or correct.
Bitcoin’s price recently slipped below $112,000, declining to $108,700 on Coinbase late Thursday. Analysts warn this downward momentum could continue, with a drop back to $107,500 possible as stop-loss selling intensifies. Markus Thielen of 10x Research notes many traders expect a fourth-quarter rally, but prices may instead face corrections driven by these profit-taking pressures.
Signs of Stress Among Bitcoin Holders
Further indicators suggest market stress: some Bitcoin holders are now selling at a loss, a warning sign of growing uncertainty. The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) is near 1.01, close to a level that historically signals renewed downside risk. Additionally, short-term holders face shrinking unrealized profits, potentially pushing them to sell quickly to cut losses. This behavior could trigger further liquidations and pressure Bitcoin’s price downward.
Where Is Bitcoin Headed Next?
Glassnode analysts highlight that unless institutional demand and holder activity pick up, Bitcoin risks deeper downward correction. The macro picture increasingly shows signs of “exhaustion” in its current cycle. However, some experts remain neutral or cautiously optimistic. Thielen holds a neutral stance until Bitcoin climbs back above $115,000. On the other hand, Bitcoin advocate Michael Saylor expects a recovery in the fourth quarter as macroeconomic pressures ease.
Broader Crypto Market Impact
The price drop in Bitcoin has coincided with sharp declines across other major cryptocurrencies. Ethereum fell about 7% due to ETF outflows and weak futures activity. Dogecoin dropped nearly 8%, reflecting market-wide risk aversion. Fears of a U.S. government shutdown and economic uncertainty add further pressure on crypto markets. Despite this, many long-term investors remain committed, viewing Bitcoin as a store of value amid volatility.
In summary, Bitcoin’s recent fall below ₹1 crore signals growing caution and profit-taking among investors. While some see this as a sign of a bear market starting, others expect a possible rebound later in the year. Monitoring institutional inflows, on-chain metrics, and macroeconomic factors will be crucial to anticipate Bitcoin’s next move.
Written By Fazal Ul Vahab C H
