In the past week, Brent crude, one of the most important global commodities, had surged by 6.31 percent. This week alone, prices have climbed over 14 percent, touching a high of $78.45 per barrel. The sharp rise comes amid escalating tensions between Iran and the United States and Israel’s attack on Iran, which have raised concerns over potential supply disruptions in the region.
U.S & Iran Tension
The United States has decided to withdraw non-essential diplomatic and military personnel from parts of the Middle East amid rising tensions with Iran and stalled nuclear negotiations. The State Department has ordered the departure of non-essential staff from the U.S. embassy in Baghdad and authorised voluntary departures from Bahrain and Kuwait.
Iran, meanwhile, maintains that its nuclear program is peaceful but warned that U.S. bases in the region could be targeted if conflict breaks out. Iran, meanwhile, maintains that its nuclear program is peaceful but warned that U.S. bases in the region could be targeted if conflict breaks out.
On Friday morning, an explosion was reported at Iran’s Natanz uranium enrichment facility, shortly after Israel launched air strikes targeting Iran’s nuclear and military sites. In response, Iran vowed a harsh and decisive retaliation, with plans reportedly being discussed at the highest levels. Israel, anticipating a counterattack, declared a state of emergency and warned of possible missile and drone strikes. Meanwhile, Iran has closed its airspace nationwide following the attacks.
Among all the oil-producing nations in OPEC, Saudi Arabia is number one, and Iraq comes next in terms of how much crude oil it produces. This highlights Iraq’s significant role in the global oil market, especially within OPEC.
Crude oil is important because it is one of the main sources of energy used around the world. It is turned into fuels like petrol, diesel, and jet fuel that power cars, trucks, ships, and airplanes. Crude oil is also used to make many everyday items. Many countries, especially those that produce and sell oil, depend on it for a large part of their income. The price of crude oil can also affect the cost of goods, travel, and even the economy of a country. Because of this, oil is not just important for energy, but also plays a big role in global trade, politics, and people’s daily lives.
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Sectors that Use Crude Oil as Raw Materials
1) Paint Stocks: The paint industry depends on crude oil derivatives like titanium dioxide and monomers, which account for 30–40% of input costs. Asian Paints and Berger Paints remain in focus due to their exposure.
2) Aviation Stocks: The aviation industry relies heavily on aviation turbine fuel (ATF), a crude oil derivative. A rise in crude prices can directly impact profitability and margins. IndiGo and SpiceJet remain in focus.
3) Tyre Stocks: The tyre industry uses synthetic rubber and carbon black, both derived from crude oil, as key raw materials. With input costs closely tied to crude prices, companies like MRF and Apollo Tyres remain in focus.
4) Lubricant Stocks: The lubricant industry depends on base oils and additives, primarily sourced from crude. Rising crude prices can squeeze margins, keeping companies like Castrol India and Gulf Oil Lubricants in focus.
Brent Crude Technical Levels
Between March 2023 and March 2025, Brent Crude prices were trading within a broad range, guided by a downward-sloping trendline. However, on the week ending 31st March 2025, this range was decisively broken on the downside, marking a significant shift in market structure. Since this breakdown, prices have consistently remained below the former support level, which was acting as resistance.
After the recent Israeli attack on Iran, crude has reached a major level, crossing the $75 mark, breaking the major resistance zone. Going forward, a sustained rally in Brent Crude would require a break above the $80 mark, which would invalidate the current pattern of lower highs and lower lows, leading to a breakout.
Written By Abhishek Das
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