Synopsis:
Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), India’s leading commodity derivatives platform, receives a Buy rating from Axis Capital with a Rs. 12,500 target, backed by dominant 98% market share, robust earnings momentum, and a projected 44% CAGR through FY28.
This company India’s leading commodity derivatives exchange which offers the benefits of fair price discovery and price risk management to the Indian commodity market ecosystem is now in the spotlight after Axis Capital gave a target of Rs. 12,500 per share.
With market capitalization of Rs. 50,258 cr, the shares of Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd are currently trading at Rs. 9,855 per share, from its previous close of Rs. 9,865 per share.
Axis Capital on MCX
Axis Capital has initiated coverage on Multi Commodity Exchange of India Limited (MCX) with a Buy rating and a price target of Rs. 12,500, representing an upside potential of 27% from current levels.
Axis Capital forecasts MCX’s earnings to grow at a 44% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) between FY25 and FY28, supported by a 37% CAGR in revenue and margin expansion to 71%.
The brokerage highlights dual growth tailwinds for MCX, which is strong economic growth driving increased commodity demand and rising participation from both institutional and retail investors. MCX commands approximately 98% market share in the Indian commodity derivatives market, benefiting from its dominant position and seeing robust earnings momentum driven by new product launches, higher market participation, and increased volatility.
Notably, new shorter-tenor and smaller-ticket products contributed to a 59% year-on-year revenue growth in FY25 and 43% growth in the first half of FY26, significantly outperforming the 15% average growth in FY21–24.
About the company
Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd (MCX) is India’s leading commodity derivatives exchange, facilitating trading in a wide range of commodities including metals, energy, and agricultural products. It provides a transparent platform for price discovery, risk management, and hedging, serving both domestic and international market participants.
The company reported strong growth in Q2 FY26, with revenue rising about 30.7% YoY to Rs. 374 crore. EBITDA increased around 35.2% to Rs. 242 crore, while net profit grew approximately 28.2% to Rs. 197 crore. EPS also improved by roughly 28.6% to Rs. 38.72, reflecting solid operational performance and profitability.
The company demonstrates strong financial health, with a ROCE of 42.9% and ROE of 34.3%, and operates with minimal debt. It has achieved an impressive 5-year profit CAGR of 25.4% and maintains a healthy dividend payout ratio of 46.5%, reflecting consistent value creation for shareholders.
As of September 30, 2025, the mutual funds hold the largest stake at 37.34%, followed by foreign portfolio investors at 18.98%, and resident individuals at 16.34%. Kotak Mahindra Bank is the largest single shareholder with a 15% stake, while other major investors include HSBC, Tata AIA, Nippon Life, and Mirae Asset Mutual Funds.
Written by Manideep Appana
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