Synopsis: Major banks predict Bitcoin could surge up to 61% in 2025, with forecasts ranging from $133,000 to $200,000, driven by ETF inflows and gold capital rotation.
Bitcoin is back in the spotlight as major banks forecast an explosive rally by year-end 2025. Leading financial institutions Citigroup, JPMorgan, and Standard Chartered project that Bitcoin could rise between $133,000 and $200,000, fueled by massive ETF inflows and capital rotation from gold.
In the past week, Bitcoin jumped more than 13%, trading near $123,671 and breaking its record high of $124,500. Analysts expect that resilient demand from spot exchange-traded funds and growing institutional adoption will drive the next leg of Bitcoin’s growth. Most forecasts point to consistent Bitcoin ETF inflows and fading gold momentum as key triggers that could send BTC to new record highs this year.
#1 Citigroup (Upside of 7.5%)
Citigroup projects Bitcoin to close 2025 around $133,000, a moderate upside of about 8.75% from current levels near $122,350. The bank expects steady inflows into spot ETFs and rising digital treasury allocations to sustain momentum. Citi estimates an additional $7.5 billion in fresh ETF inflows by year-end, supporting ongoing demand.
Currently, U.S.-based spot Bitcoin ETFs collectively manage more than $163.50 billion worth of BTC. This growing market, Citigroup believes, forms the foundation for a “maturing asset class” supported by structural demand rather than speculation. However, Citi’s bear case remains cautious. It warns that Bitcoin could fall to $83,000 if economic growth slows and risk appetite weakens globally.
#2 JPMorgan (Upside of 33.4%)
JPMorgan analysts value Bitcoin as deeply undervalued compared to gold when adjusted for volatility. Led by managing director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, the team points out that the Bitcoin-to-gold volatility ratio has dropped below 2.0. This means the asset now carries less relative risk than before.
If Bitcoin were to match gold’s adjusted market position, its market capitalization would need to jump by about 42%, pointing to a target near $165,000. According to JPMorgan, this adjustment aligns with $6 trillion held in gold across ETFs, bars, and coins.
Gold prices surged 48% this year, nearing one of their strongest runs since 1979. Yet, technical indicators suggest that gold is heavily overbought and might soon face a correction. Consequently, analysts expect part of that capital to rotate into Bitcoin, providing fuel for a year-end rally. JPMorgan’s forecast also assumes continued spot ETF inflows and a supportive Federal Reserve stance as rate cuts stimulate market liquidity.
#3 Standard Chartered (Upside of 61.7%)
Among major banks, Standard Chartered presents the most optimistic view, predicting Bitcoin could reach $200,000 by December 2025. The bank expects weekly ETF inflows averaging $500 million to push Bitcoin’s total market capitalization close to $4 trillion. Its analysts argue that weakening U.S. dollar conditions and renewed liquidity across global markets may recreate momentum similar to the 2020–2021 bull run. They describe the $200,000 projection as a “structural uptrend,” not a short-term rally.
Asset manager VanEck also supports the bullish scenario, estimating a $180,000 target by 2025. The firm points to post-halving supply constraints and rising institutional demand as driving factors. It has been 533 days since Bitcoin’s last halving, placing it perfectly in the historical timeframe when major rallies tend to occur between 365 and 550 days after each halving.
As analysts turn increasingly optimistic, Bitcoin’s path to new highs seems aligned with the combined forces of institutional capital, ETF momentum, and gold’s waning dominance in global markets.
Written By Fazal Ul Vahab C H
