Synopsis: Jefferies expects steady June quarter earnings across India’s pharma sector, with domestic chronic therapy demand driving growth. One company stands out with acquisition-led numbers well ahead of its peers.
India’s pharmaceutical companies are set to report a steady June quarter, with brokerage firm Jefferies pointing to healthy domestic demand as the common thread across its coverage universe. The domestic pharma market itself grew 11.5% year-on-year during the quarter, led by chronic therapy segments like cardiac and anti-diabetic drugs.
Generic semaglutide has also added momentum, though the brokerage flagged that demand trends beyond the initial launch phase will need close watching. Here is how six major pharma names are expected to fare.
Torrent Pharma
Torrent Pharmaceuticals is expected to be the standout performer this quarter, and by a wide margin. Jefferies has pencilled in revenue growth of 51% year-on-year, with EBITDA expected to climb even faster at 54%. Much of this jump comes from the JB Pharma acquisition, which has added significant scale to the business, while organic growth is estimated at a solid 14%.
The company is also tipped to post the fastest sequential growth in North America sales among export-oriented pharma players in Jefferies’ coverage, suggesting its US business is gaining traction alongside the domestic push.
Mankind Pharma
Mankind Pharma is expected to deliver a more measured but still healthy quarter, with revenue growth pegged at 11% year-on-year. EBITDA growth is forecast to outpace revenue at 17%, pointing to some margin expansion.
The brokerage attributes this to consistent prescription demand across the company’s core chronic therapy portfolio, along with operating margins that are expected to hold firm.
Ajanta Pharma
Ajanta Pharma is projected to post 15% growth in both revenue and EBITDA for the quarter, keeping its growth trajectory intact despite a fairly crowded and competitive market. What stands out is the profitability side, with Jefferies estimating an operating margin of close to 27%, a level that reflects the company’s ability to protect its bottom line even as competition intensifies across therapy segments.
Alkem Laboratories
Alkem Laboratories is expected to see revenue rise 13% year-on-year, with EBITDA growth trailing slightly at 11%. The more interesting part of the story here is the margin trajectory. Jefferies expects the company’s domestic business to gain momentum through the quarter, which should help operating margins recover on a sequential basis after a softer stretch.
Emcure Pharmaceuticals
Emcure Pharmaceuticals is forecast to report a fairly steady quarter, with both revenue and EBITDA expected to grow 12% year-on-year. Unlike some of its peers, there isn’t a big swing expected on the margin front, with operating margins projected to stay largely stable. This points to a quarter of consistent, if unspectacular, execution for the company.
Zydus Lifesciences
Zydus Lifesciences rounds out the list, with Jefferies expecting the domestic formulations business to remain the key growth driver for the quarter. The brokerage’s commentary suggests the India business should stay resilient, riding on the same chronic therapy demand seen across the sector. However, growth from the company’s export markets is expected to be comparatively more measured, keeping the overall growth story anchored largely to domestic performance.
Taken together, Jefferies’ estimates paint a picture of a pharma sector that continues to lean on India’s chronic disease treatment demand as its primary growth engine, with acquisition-driven names like Torrent Pharma pulling ahead of organic growth stories. While most companies in the list are expected to hold or improve margins, the brokerage’s repeated emphasis on watching post-launch demand for newer therapies like generic semaglutide suggests that sustaining this pace of growth may depend on how well companies capture emerging opportunities beyond their traditional chronic therapy base.
Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts/broking houses/rating agencies on tradebrains.in are their own, and not that of the website or its management. Investing in equities poses a risk of financial losses. Investors must therefore exercise due caution while investing or trading in stocks. Trade Brains Technologies Private Limited or the author are not liable for any losses caused as a result of the decision based on this article. Please consult your investment advisor before investing.
