The Right time to invest, or is it?
“Imagine, always wanting to own something but not being able to, because that something was too expensive, maybe not worth the price tag or maybe it was the right price but your pockets were not deep enough to buy it”
The above thoughts must be crossing every investor’s or trader’s mind right now. The stocks which were expensive in January 2020 are right now available at a discount rate of 30%-50% in May 2020. So what led to this sudden decline in prices or undervaluation or availability at a sale? Is it just an impact of Global pandemic (COVID-19), or Is it the global uncertainties. Are we heading towards a bigger recession? Or Were these share prices simply too overvalued and had just the right trigger to correct them, which in this case was COVID- 19.
To get a little deeper into the discussion, let’s take an example of a few sectors. The auto sector, the health of which usually defines the ‘luxury health’ of a nation. But over some time we have seen a continuous decline in the Nifty Auto Index, which tells us a lot about the depleting health of the sector.
The Auto index which was trading near all-time highs of 11900 in January 2018 is right now trading near lows of 5000. As we can see that this decline in the sector started long before COVID-19 was born. This also tells us a lot about the consumer’s reluctance to spend less on luxury items and save more for future uncertainties. In the current scenario, most of the Auto sectors company shares are trading at almost half the price compared to early 2019 levels. The image below is the Auto Index for the last three years.
(Source: Nifty Auto –BloombergQuint)
So, it is still the right time to buy or are these companies still overvalued, especially knowing that consumer demand for luxury goods will still take quite some time to bounce back. But, seeing the lucrativeness of the prices of various stocks (as they are trading at a discount of 30%-50% from top), one can start investing a portion of his desired investment now. But, it is advised to not to empty the full clip right now, as we could see some more correction in the market. So investing parts of portfolio over time is the best way ahead. And as the saying goes, “it is never a wrong time, to do the right thing”
Similarly, if we were to take the example of the Nifty Pharma index, this index was at peak during March 2015 (13,300 levels) and at its low during March 2020 (6700 levels). The figure below shows the Nifty Pharma Index Now, in this case, one can say that this might be the right time to start investing in this sector as the pharma products will have higher demand during this global pandemic and we can already start seeing pharma companies doing well over last two months.
The index has almost recovered to 9000 levels. So one can start building their portfolio have some portion dedicated to the pharma sector. Again SIP is the best strategy.
(Source: Nifty Pharma BloombergQuint)
From the above discussion it very difficult to say that the recovery mode for the market has started or we have seen the bottom. One can never be sure. But one thing is for sure, that the market will recover sooner rather than later. One has to be very prudent and use his/her bias-free judgment to pick his or her investment strategy and timing.
One best way to do it by having a systematic Investment plan (SIP) and diversify his/her risk across sectors. It is near impossible for anyone to pick the top or bottom for any indices or sector. So it is advised to invest a portion of total desired investment and keep investing at systematic intervals of time. This way the investor will be able to average his price and a major movement in one sector or indices would not dent his portfolio significantly.
Hitesh Singhi is an active derivative trader with over +10 years of experience of trading in Futures and Options in Indian Equity market and International energy products like Brent Crude, WTI Crude, RBOB, Gasoline etc. He has traded on BSE, NSE, ICE Exchange & NYMEX Exchange. By qualification, Hitesh has a graduate degree in Business Management and an MBA in Finance. Connect with Hitesh over Twitter here!
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