Synopsis: Bharti Airtel’s strong subscriber gains, rising data usage, and steady ARPU growth have pushed the stock near its 52-week high, prompting analysts to relook its earnings momentum. With sector consolidation and tariff tailwinds at play, can the telecom major sustain this robust performance over the next 24 months?
A steady rise in subscriber additions, stronger data usage, and improving cash flows has kept Bharti Airtel in the spotlight, with analysts now assessing whether the telecom major can sustain its strong earnings momentum over the next two years.
Bharti Airtel, with a market cap of Rs. 12,33,279.85 crore, opened at Rs. 2,149 after a previous close of Rs. 2,159.45 and moved to a high of Rs. 2,174.70. This reflects a rise of around 0.70 percent from the previous close to the intraday high. The stock has rallied over 40 percent in the past one year and is currently trading close to its 52-week high.
Will the Robust Earnings Continue?
S&P Global Ratings expects Bharti Airtel to maintain strong earnings growth over the next 24 months, driven largely by its Indian operations. The agency projects 2 to 4 percent annual subscriber additions and a 6 to 8 percent increase in ARPU, supported by upgrades to higher-priced plans and rising data consumption. This anticipated growth, combined with the company’s ongoing deleveraging, could support a stronger long-term credit rating.
Airtel’s ARPU rise has been aided by industry-wide tariff hikes in July 2024, when the company raised prices by 10 to 21 percent. Its ARPU climbed to Rs. 256 in Q2FY26, up 21 percent from the quarter ended June 2024. S&P added that Airtel continues to gain subscribers alongside Reliance Jio, helped partly by churn from Vodafone Idea due to its under-investment in network infrastructure.
Airtel’s wireless subscriber base rose to 364 million as of September 2025, compared with 351 million a year earlier. S&P also noted that the Africa business will likely contribute around 20 percent of consolidated earnings through FY27. With the Indian telecom market now consolidated, where the top three players control over 90 percent of subscribers. S&P believes the competitive environment can support sustained earnings growth. Airtel’s wireless market share now stands at 34 percent, behind Jio’s 41 percent and ahead of Vodafone Idea’s 17 percent.
S&P estimates consolidated adjusted EBITDA to grow by 23 to 25 percent to nearly Rs. 1.2 lakh crore in FY26, followed by annual growth of 7 to 8 percent over the next two years. However, rising debt at Airtel’s parent, Bharti Telecom, could weigh on creditworthiness, since Airtel is its biggest investment.
Financial Snapshot – Q2FY26
Quarter-on-quarter, Airtel posted a strong set of numbers. Sales increased from Rs. 49,463 crore to Rs. 52,145 crore, a rise of 5.4 percent. Operating profit grew from Rs. 27,839 crore to Rs. 29,561 crore, up 6.2 percent. Profit before tax increased from Rs. 10,504 crore to Rs. 12,322 crore, rising 17.3 percent, while net profit moved from Rs. 7,422 crore to Rs. 8,651 crore, up 16.5 percent over the previous quarter.
On a year-on-year basis, the numbers were even stronger. Sales rose from Rs. 41,473 crore to Rs. 52,145 crore, an increase of 25.8 percent. Operating profit grew from Rs. 21,846 crore to Rs. 29,561 crore, up 35.3 percent. Profit before tax surged from Rs. 5,897 crore to Rs. 12,322 crore, jumping 109 percent, while net profit increased from Rs. 4,153 crore to Rs. 8,651 crore, up 108.2 percent year-on-year.
-Manan Gangwar
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