Synopsis: India’s telecom sector is expected to post steady Q1FY27 growth, driven by premiumisation and improving ARPU. While Bharti Airtel is projected to lead with stronger profitability and subscriber additions, Vodafone Idea is expected to deliver gradual operational recovery despite ongoing financial challenges.
The telecom sector is expected to witness steady growth in Q1FY27, driven primarily by continued consumer premiumisation as subscribers migrate to higher-value 4G and 5G plans. This trend is likely to support improved revenue realisation for telecom operators.
Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) is expected to improve sequentially across the industry, supported by a richer subscriber mix rather than tariff increases. Telecom companies are also expected to benefit from stable operating conditions, with no fresh tariff hikes anticipated during the quarter.
Meanwhile, broadband services continue to remain a key growth engine, backed by increasing demand for high-speed internet from households and businesses. Strong broadband momentum is expected to complement mobile services and support overall revenue growth for the sector.
Bharti Airtel Ltd
Bharti Airtel is expected to maintain its leadership in the Indian telecom sector, supported by continued consumer premiumisation as users migrate from 2G to 4G and 5G services. Higher postpaid subscriber additions, an expanding base of premium customers, and an additional operating day during the quarter are likely to support steady growth in revenue and profitability. The company is also expected to continue delivering industry-leading margins and operational efficiency.
For Q1FY27, Airtel’s Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) is estimated to increase by 4.8% YoY and around 2% QoQ to Rs. 262. The company is expected to add 3–5 million subscribers during the quarter. Consolidated revenue is projected at Rs. 56,902 crore, while EBITDA is estimated at Rs. 32,350 crore and net profit at Rs. 8,426 crore. Estimates are based on sector analyst projections and ICICI Securities research.
Sales of the company increased from Rs. 53,982 cr in Q3FY26 to Rs. 55,383 cr in Q4FY26. Operating profit rose to Rs. 31,492 cr from Rs. 30,783 cr. Net profit rose from Rs. 8,503 to Rs. 9,247 over the same period.
Vodafone Idea Ltd
Vodafone Idea remains focused on strengthening its financial position through debt and equity fundraising while accelerating network expansion to improve service quality and customer retention. Although the company continues to face financial challenges, it is expected to witness gradual operational improvement with modest subscriber additions and better revenue realisation.
For Q1FY27, Vodafone Idea’s ARPU is expected to improve by 1.9% sequentially to Rs. 177, including machine-to-machine (M2M) connections. The company is projected to report a net subscriber addition of around 0.3 million, along with 0.5 million mobile broadband subscriber additions.
Consolidated revenue is estimated at Rs. 11,511 crore, reflecting 1.8% QoQ growth, while EBITDA is expected at Rs. 4,956 crore. However, the company is likely to remain loss-making, with an estimated net loss of Rs. 5,351 crore. Estimates are based on JM Financial and overall consolidated Street expectations.
Sales of the company marginally grew from Rs. 11,323 cr in Q3FY26 to Rs. 11,332 cr in Q4FY26. Operating profit increased to Rs. 4,889 cr from Rs. 4,817 cr. Net profit increased from a loss of Rs. 5,286 cr to a profit of Rs. 51,970 cr over the same period. Profit surged primarily due to a sharp increase in exceptional items, which rose from Rs. 1,077 cr to Rs. 57,483 cr, significantly boosting the company’s bottom line.
In conclusion, based on Q1FY27 estimates, Bharti Airtel is expected to lead telecom growth, driven by stronger ARPU expansion, healthy subscriber additions, robust profitability, and continued benefits from premiumisation.
While Vodafone Idea is showing signs of operational recovery through network expansion and modest subscriber growth, it continues to face financial challenges and is expected to remain loss-making. Overall, Airtel appears better positioned to outperform the sector in the current quarter.
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