The corporate Bitcoin arena just got hotter. A new heavyweight, Twenty One Capital, has stormed into the market with a staggering $3.6 billion Bitcoin treasury, instantly positioning itself as a rival to Michael Saylor’s Strategy (MSTR). Analysts now suggest this competition isn’t a threat but a validation of Saylor’s once-controversial Bitcoin playbook.
Wall Street firm TD Cowen argues Twenty One’s launch could turbocharge institutional confidence in Bitcoin-focused companies. Furthermore, Strategy’s stock and Bitcoin itself might be on track for a surge. Here’s why this rivalry is rewriting the rules.
Twenty One’s Mega Launch
Three corporate giants, SoftBank, Tether, and Cantor Fitzgerald, unveiled Twenty One Capital this week, a Bitcoin accumulation firm structured to rival Strategy. With 42,000 Bitcoin ($3.6 billion) on its balance sheet from day one, Twenty One becomes the third-largest public holder overnight.
The company plans to go public via a SPAC merger with Cantor Equity Partners (CEP), already sparking a 130% rally in CEP shares. More strikingly, analysts see this move as a game-changer for Strategy. “Twenty One’s model is the clearest endorsement of MSTR’s strategy yet,” said TD Cowen’s Lance Vitanza.
Outlook for Strategy
Paradoxically, Twenty One’s entrance has made analysts more optimistic about Strategy. TD Cowen reiterated a $550 price target for MSTR, projecting it could hold 757,000 Bitcoin (3.6% of supply) by 2027. If Bitcoin hits $170,000 by then, that stash would balloon to $129 billion.
“This rivalry converts skeptics into believers,” said analyst Jonnathan Navarrete. He noted Twenty One’s high-profile backing could attract fresh capital into Bitcoin, offsetting any pressure on Strategy’s funding costs. At the same time, MSTR shares have held steady, signalling investor confidence.
BPS, BRR, and “Bitcoin-First” Promises
Twenty One isn’t just copying Strategy; it’s innovating. The firm will track “Bitcoins Per Share (BPS)” and “Bitcoin Return Rate (BRR),” metrics designed to appeal to corporations wary of ETFs. CEO Jack Mallers pledged to prioritise shareholder value in “Bitcoin terms,” vowing never to dilute BPS.
“Our job is to make shareholders wealthier in Bitcoin,” Mallers declared in a recent interview. The firm aims to blend Bitcoin with traditional finance, offering a bridge for institutions. However, critics question its reliance on controversial partners like Tether and SoftBank.
SoftBank’s Risky Bets and Tether’s Legal Clouds
Twenty One’s consortium raises eyebrows. SoftBank, known for disastrous bets on WeWork and Uber, brings a $900 million investment and baggage. Founder Masayoshi Son lost $130 million on Bitcoin in 2017 and $70 billion during the dot-com crash. Will Twenty One redeem him?
Tether, contributing $1.5 billion, faces its own scrutiny. The stablecoin giant recently exited Europe due to regulatory clashes and remains tight-lipped about audits. Its involvement fuels skepticism, especially given ties to U.S. officials: Cantor’s chair is the son of Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick.
Validation vs. “Exorbitant Privilege”
Reactions to Twenty One are mixed. Bitwise’s Jeff Park called it an “ultimate exorbitant privilege joint venture,” hinting at potential dollar manipulation through Tether’s Treasury holdings. Others fear its structure lets investors “own Bitcoin without owning Bitcoin,” diluting crypto’s decentralised ethos.
Still, many cheer the competition. “Strategy’s been lonely at the top,” said trader Kinky Contango on X. “This pushes Bitcoin further into mainstream finance.” Whether Twenty One becomes the next Alibaba or another WeWork-style flop, its impact is already undeniable.
More Players, More Scrutiny
Strategy now faces pressure to innovate, but Saylor’s vision looks vindicated. As TD Cowen notes, Twenty One’s launch proves corporations see Bitcoin as a legitimate treasury asset. Expect more entrants and regulatory fireworks as Wall Street and crypto collide.
Yet risks loom. Tether’s regulatory battles, SoftBank’s erratic history, and Bitcoin’s volatility could upend Twenty One’s ambitions. For investors, the message is clear: Bitcoin’s corporate era has begun, and the stakes have never been higher.
Welcome to the game
Twenty One’s arrival marks a turning point for Bitcoin and Strategy. While skeptics question its backers, the rivalry shows Bitcoin’s growing institutional appeal. As Saylor himself might say, “Welcome to the game.”
