The race to secure Bitcoin under six figures could be nearing its endgame. As the U.S. Treasury prepares to inject liquidity through bond buybacks, analysts warn investors might soon face a stark reality: Bitcoin could skyrocket past $100,000, leaving latecomers scrambling. Arthur Hayes, crypto pioneer and BitMEX co-founder, claims this window won’t stay open long.
Hayes: “Last Chance” to Buy Bitcoin Under $100K
Arthur Hayes isn’t mincing words. In a recent social media post, the Maelstrom CIO declared, “Seriously, fam, this might be the last chance to buy BTC under $100K.” His warning hinges on the U.S. Treasury’s plan to repurchase billions in government bonds, a move he calls the “bazooka” for Bitcoin’s price. Treasury buybacks, designed to stabilise debt markets, could flood the financial system with cash, pushing investors toward alternative assets like Bitcoin.
Hayes predicts Bitcoin could hit $110,000 soon, with some forecasts soaring to $200,000 by late 2025. Meanwhile, institutions in Japan and the U.K. are already funnelling millions into Bitcoin, signalling a brewing storm.
How Treasury Buybacks Fuel Bitcoin’s Fire
When the U.S. Treasury buys back bonds, it swaps debt for cash, effectively pumping liquidity into markets. This manoeuvre aims to ease pressure on rising interest rates and shaky government debt. But Hayes argues it’s a stealth form of quantitative easing, printing money without calling it that.
“They don’t realise buybacks flood the market with dollar leverage,” he explains. More dollars in circulation typically weaken the currency’s value, making hard assets like Bitcoin attractive. Recent data shows Bitcoin surged to $87,700 as the dollar hit a 2022 low, reinforcing its role as a hedge. Analysts like Bitget’s Ryan Lee note Bitcoin’s technical breakout and rising gold correlation add momentum.
Dollar’s Decline
The U.S. dollar index just dipped to its lowest since March 2022, a trend turbocharging Bitcoin’s rally. Andre Dragosch of Bitwise highlights this inverse relationship: “Bitcoin pumps on dollar weakness.” As the greenback stumbles, investors increasingly view Bitcoin as a safe haven, mirroring gold’s recent climb to record highs.
Jamie Coutts, Real Vision’s crypto analyst, ties Bitcoin’s rise to expanding fiat money supplies. He projects a $132,000 price tag by 2025 if liquidity keeps growing. However, global trade tensions loom. Until the U.S. and China resolve tariff disputes, market fears could temporarily cap gains.
Institutions Bet Big in Uncertainty
Despite Bitcoin’s recent 16% correction, institutional players aren’t backing down. Japanese firms and U.K. asset managers have poured over $500 million into Bitcoin ETFs this month alone. This influx suggests confidence in Bitcoin’s four-year cycle, which historically peaks after “halving” events reduce supply.
Hayes links this adoption to Treasury policies, arguing buybacks create a “risk-on” environment. “Cash-rich institutions will chase higher returns,” he says. Data shows Bitcoin’s correlation with traditional markets is rising, blurring lines between crypto and mainstream finance.
Why the Rally Isn’t Guaranteed
Not everyone’s convinced the $100K leap is imminent. Michaël van de Poppe, a prominent analyst, warns Bitcoin must first breach $91,000 resistance (already broken). Short-term sell-offs, driven by over-leveraged traders, could delay the surge. Additionally, Trump’s aggressive tariffs and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s uncertain fate add unpredictability.
Hayes acknowledges these risks but insists macro trends favour Bitcoin. He points to the Fed quietly slowing its bond sell-offs, a precursor to renewed money printing. “Once the liquidity spigot opens, there’s no stopping Bitcoin,” he asserts.
Hayes Track Record: Why Investors Listen
Hayes clout stems from past wins. He accurately tied Bitcoin’s 2013 and 2015 rallies to yuan devaluations. Earlier this month, his “up only mode” tweet preceded Bitcoin’s jump to $83,000. Now, his focus on Treasury buybacks has traders buzzing.
Yet critics urge caution. Bitcoin’s store-of-value narrative remains untested in prolonged downturns. While technical indicators like the MACD bullish crossover hint at momentum, the road to $100K may be bumpy.
Final Countdown to Six Figures?
With Treasury buybacks expected to unleash liquidity and the dollar weakening, Bitcoin’s destiny seems tied to macroeconomic chess moves. Hayes’s bold prediction hinges on a fragile cocktail of policy shifts and investor sentiment.
For those eyeing Bitcoin, the message is clear: the sub-$100K era might vanish faster than anyone expects. As markets brace for turbulence, one question lingers: will this bet pay off, or is it another crypto mirage? Only time and Treasury decisions will tell.
