Synopsis: The country’s largest cement producer is seeing rare unanimity on the Street after a blockbuster June quarter, with four global brokerages raising target prices in one go. Strong volume growth, resilient pricing, and a widening profitability gap over the rest of the industry are being cited as reasons to stay invested, even after a sharp run-up in the stock.
A blockbuster June quarter has pushed Street sentiment further into bullish territory, with brokerages lining up to raise target prices rather than trim them. Unlike the mixed reactions that typically follow earnings season, this is a rare show of consensus, with four heavyweight names each pointing to strong execution, firm pricing, and a widening lead over the rest of the industry as reasons to stay invested.
With a market capitalization of approximately Rs. 3,55,746 crore, the shares of UltraTech Cement Limited were trading at Rs. 12,067 per share, with a 52-week range of Rs. 13,110 to Rs. 10,325, and they are trading at a P/E of approximately 41x.
Jefferies: Ahead Of The Pack
Jefferies has maintained its ‘Buy’ rating and raised its target price to ₹14,065 from ₹14,050, implying an upside of roughly 16.3% from current levels. The brokerage described UltraTech as remaining ahead of its peers, pointing to strong execution on both EBITDA and volumes, with earnings supported by double-digit volume growth alongside better realizations.
Management expects pricing to hold steady through the monsoon months, and Jefferies is building in double-digit volume growth for FY27 along with modest expansion in EBITDA per tonne.
Goldman Sachs: Growing Like A Challenger
Goldman Sachs has retained its ‘Buy’ call, lifting its target price to ₹13,500 from ₹13,160, an upside of about 11.6%. The brokerage called the quarter a strong one, noting that the incumbent is expanding market share at a pace more typical of a smaller challenger than the industry leader.
It attributed the earnings beat to superior volume growth paired with firmer pricing, adding that cement prices have stayed firm through the second quarter despite the monsoon. Goldman is now pencilling in an EBITDA CAGR of 16% over the next two years.
Morgan Stanley: Share Gains Without Giving Up Price
Morgan Stanley has kept its ‘Overweight’ rating and raised its target price to ₹14,700 from ₹14,600, the highest on the Street among the four, implying an upside of around 21.5%. The brokerage highlighted that the company continues to gain market share without compromising on realizations, a combination it views positively.
It did flag Middle East-led cost inflation as an ongoing challenge and said the key thing to watch going forward will be how demand trends once the monsoon season ends.
CLSA: Beat Across The Board
CLSA has maintained its ‘High Conviction Outperform’ rating, raising its target price to ₹14,000 from ₹13,800, an upside of roughly 15.8% from current levels. The brokerage said the company beat expectations on virtually every metric this quarter, with cost guidance surprising positively and overall profitability coming in well ahead of what the Street had modelled going in.
Management, it added, reiterated confidence in a strong growth pipeline going forward, giving the brokerage further comfort on earnings visibility over the coming quarters. CLSA views the execution quality as reinforcing its case for staying invested despite the recent rally in the stock.
Business & Financials Overview
UltraTech Cement, part of the Aditya Birla Group, is India’s largest cement manufacturer and among the top players globally outside China. It produces grey cement, white cement, and ready-mix concrete for retail and institutional buyers across residential, infrastructure, and commercial construction. With an extensive pan-India network and operations in the UAE, Bahrain, and Sri Lanka, the company has also expanded its focus on renewable energy and green manufacturing.
On a consolidated basis, net sales for the June 2026 quarter came in at Rs. 24,465 crore, up 16.3% year-on-year from Rs. 21,040 crore in the year-ago quarter. Operating EBITDA stood at Rs. 5,015 crore, while overall EBITDA, including other income, came in at Rs. 5,146 crore, up 12.1% from Rs. 4,591 crore a year earlier. Operating EBITDA per tonne improved to Rs. 1,214, up Rs. 16 year-on-year.
Consolidated sales volume for the quarter stood at 41.31 million tonnes, up 12.2% year-on-year. This was led by domestic grey cement volumes of 39.17 MnT, up 13.1%, while domestic white cement volumes grew 12.8% to 0.53 MnT. Overseas volumes (grey and white combined) declined 11.2% to 1.57 MnT, while exports and other sales rose 17.3% to 0.15 MnT. The flagship UltraTech brand itself grew 21.3% year-on-year.
The scale of the company’s lead over the rest of the industry was evident in FY26 numbers as well. UltraTech commands roughly 35% of industry grey cement volumes, having sold 145 MnT in FY26, up 8.4% year-on-year against industry growth of 5.7%. Its revenue share stood at 37%, at Rs. 87,384 crore, growing 12.3% against the industry’s 8.7%.
On profitability, the company’s operating EBITDA per tonne gap over the rest of the industry widened to Rs. 1,103 per tonne, with UltraTech’s EBITDA per tonne rising Rs. 179 year-on-year compared to the industry’s Rs. 106. Its EBITDA share stood at 39% at Rs. 17,598 crore, up 32.3% year-on-year against industry growth of 9.1%, while its share of operating cash flow was 42% at Rs. 15,316 crore, up a sharp 43.5% against the industry’s 9.0%.
On the capacity and sustainability front, the company commissioned 8.7 MTPA of new grey cement capacity, taking total capacity to 205.5 MTPA. Its retail outlet network expanded to 5,802 UBS outlets, up 21% year-on-year, while average lead distance improved by 9 km to 360 km, aiding logistics efficiency. On the green energy side, waste heat recovery capacity rose 19% to 434 MW, renewable power capacity grew 35% to 1.46 GW, and the green power mix improved 23% to 45.6% of overall energy use.
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