Singapore, Dec 6 (PTI) Singapore companies, the financial sector and households should stay vigilant and prudent amid “considerable uncertainty” from the COVID-19 pandemic, the island city-state’s central bank cautioned on Monday.
So far, the local financial system has been resilient as existing buffers and “exceptional” government measures provided “critical support”. The subsequent economic recovery and accommodative domestic financial conditions also helped to shore up overall resilience, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) said in its annual financial stability review.
Noting that the coronavirus pandemic “will continue to be a source of considerable uncertainty”, it said this may result in renewed job losses and concerns about the viability of corporates.
While authorities are expecting the Singapore economy to grow between 3 per cent and 5 per cent next year, renewed COVID-19 outbreaks around the world and re-imposition of mobility restrictions could disrupt economic activity again, the MAS said.
The consequent increase in global risk aversion could also cause a tightening in domestic financial conditions, reducing the flow of credit to the economy. These stresses could be exacerbated if global financial conditions were to also tighten significantly in response to persistently higher inflation, it said.
“Continued vigilance and prudence therefore remain warranted,” the Channel News Asia quoted MAS as saying.
Companies will likely have to contend with uneven growth across the economy moving ahead.
Sectors less affected by the pandemic, especially manufacturing, will gain further traction, the central bank said.
Meanwhile, those that are more sensitive to the pandemic could be subject to sporadic mobility restrictions, depending on the evolution of the coronavirus.
With that, targeted support for viable firms temporarily affected by the resurgence in infections may still be needed, even as broad-based assistance measures are withdrawn to guard against debt sustainability risk in the medium to longer term.
This, according to the MAS, underscores the importance of timely surveillance on non-financial corporates in order to assess their vulnerability, understand their contribution to financial stability risks as well as inform the design of appropriate policy support.
The MAS said it is looking to enhance its existing corporate surveillance framework with “probability of default indicators”.
The MAS noted that banks in Singapore have maintained healthy asset quality, alongside strong capital and liquidity buffers.
The non-bank sector has also weathered the stresses from COVID-19 well, with insurers remaining well-capitalised and investment funds being able to meet redemptions.
But credit quality could deteriorate if renewed disruptions to economic activity trigger a rise in business insolvencies and unemployment, the MAS said.
An industry-wide stress test conducted this year showed that banks would remain resilient if a resurgence in COVID-19 infections, due to more virulent mutated virus strains, causes the global recovery to stall.
On households, the MAS expects a supportive macroeconomic environment moving forward, amid improvements in the labour market.
However, the financial positions of households, particularly those in the most vulnerable segments, could come under pressure in the event that shocks materialise.
But the uncertain trajectory of the pandemic remains a key risk as new virus strains emerge, the MAS said. PTI GS SCY SCY
